Space-time Evolution Pattern Of Grain Production And The Driving Factors In Jiangxi Province

Grain problem is a major strategic issue in the national economy and people's livelihood,not only directly relates to people's survival,but also relates to economic development,social stability and national security.The central committee and state council attaches great importance to agriculture,rural areas and farmers problems.Ensuring stable grain production and effective supply has been one of agricultural policy goals in China.Since the new China was established,grain production although experienced many fluctuations,but the general tendency,Chinese grain production has achieved "Twelve increase" since 2004 under the agriculture support of a series national policy,which has laid a solid foundation for the national rapid development to improve people's living standard and the level of economy society.The large population,the per capita arable land area are relatively less determined by the conditions of stability and increase the strategic target.But the grain production,along with the rapid development of social economy and industrialization,the rapid advance of urbanization,the spatial pattern of grain production Chinese has undergone significant changes.Some developed coastal provinces(city)the grain planting area decreased year by year,the grain yield also will continue to decline,some provinces from the original province for food production and food recall gradually turned into grain production Balance,and even import grain big province.Thus,ensuring food supply and demand of regional balance and even national strategy puts forward the new challenges of food security.Time and space distribution of food supply is balanced or not is one of the important factors affecting food security.China has a vast territory,there are great differences in different regional distribution of agricultural resources and agricultural production conditions,grain production has obvious regional differences,which will affect the domestic grain production and food security.The historical process of grain production in China have its inherent law of nature.Jiangxi Province as one of the 13 major grain producing areas in China has always been China's grain production and grain net transfer out of the province,is also one of the provinces which not only stopped out of commodity grain provinces(another one is Jilin province)since China established.So the grain production of Jiangxi Province affects the food security of our country to a great extent.At present,in the period of strategic structural adjustment of agriculture in jiangxi province,as the population continues to grow,arable land decrease gradually,grain economic benefit is low,the rapid advance of industrialization and urbanization,the grain production structure will produce a far-reaching influence.How to carry out scientific layout of grain production in the food security task is urgent,and being clear grain production behind the driving factors is the key to promote grain growth and ensure food security.Basing on the relevant theoretical basis and the existing research results,using descriptive statistical analysis,GIS spatial analysis method analyses the temporal evolution of grain production and the status of the spatial pattern of evolution in jiangxi province.On this basis,from the land resources,science and technology,material input,regional economy,climate factor is discussed the driving factors behind the evolution of the Spatial and temporal patterns of grain production in Jiangxi Province.Then,using panel data makes empirical analysis,and finally,puts forward the relevant policy recommendations.The main contents of this paper include the following five aspects:The first chapter,introduction.Introducing the importance of long-term food problems,urgency and spatial pattern of rain production,the paper introduces the research background and confirm the research contents,ideas,methods and technical route;The second chapter,the theoretical basis and literature review.The chapter introduces the theoretical basis,mainly including location theory and new spatial economics theory.The literature review of the space and time pattern of grain production at home and abroad is summarized;The third chapter,the space-time evolution pattern of grain production in Jiangxi Province.Using the related data of grain production from 1990—2013 in jiangxi province,space-time evolution pattern of grain production were analyzed.First of all,using the descriptive statistics analysis method analyzes time evolution pattern of grain production in jiangxi province,secondly,using the GIS spatial analysis method analyzes space evolution pattern of grain production from the aspects of district and county in jiangxi province;The fourth chapter,the driving factors of space-time pattern evolution of food production in Jiangxi Province.Combining space-time evolution pattern of grain production in jiangxi province,from the factors such as land resources,scientific and technical factors,market demand factors,regional economic factors,abundant water resources degree,analyzes the driving factors of space-time evolution pattern of grain production and construct panel data econometric model for empirical analysis;The fifth chapter,the suggestion and future prospects.Summarizing the conclusion from previous chapters,concludes that space-time evolution pattern of grain production and the driving factors.Then,putting forward relevant policy Suggestions from adjusting measures to local conditions for food production,intensify protection of arable land,enhance the level of agricultural science and technology and so on.Finally,the prospects of future research are discussed.Delving into pace-time evolution pattern of grain production in jiangxi province and driving factors,not only expands the vision of the study about the grain production pattern,but also enrichs the spatial econometric analysis method in the field of grain production application.It is beneficial to correctly grasp space-time evolution pattern of grain production and driving factors.It is useful to develop layout policy of grain production in the future for the provincial government and provide practical guidance for the construction of grain production capacity.