The Study Of Structural Change Point Between Real Estate Price And Bank Credit

China’s real estate market has been the most related to the people’s livelihood,society and the government to give full attention to the real estate market,the real estate market is the most important variable is real estate prices.1998 the housing market-oriented reform is the beginning of the long-term real estate development,for a long time the continuing rise in real estate prices become the focus of people’s attention and discussion,its growth rate less than most of the financial assets of value-added rate and far more than the per capita income growth level,but at the same time,a large number of vacant commercial housing,mysterious around the real mission,intense public debate make real estate too high,and even the real estate bubble theory constantly in the media and on the Internet.Many scholars point out that this is because China’s monetary policy has led to bank credit easing,too much money into the real estate market caused prices to grow too fast.Bank credit has been the real estate market the most important financing platform and source of funds,and real estate and banking system accounted for very high mortgage products,between the two relations can be described as "you have me,I have you",but this "alignment,destroy fear ruin" is not what we want to see.And the relationship between the two has been is structural change is an urgent need to answer the question,in view of the fact that China is a developing country,the degree of marketization did not as developed nations,governments and central banks as a policy to develop center and monetary adjustment center of economy of our country great influence.According to the above thinking,this paper attempts from the perspective of the dynamic relationship between the two,the dynamic relationship between the two sides,and the change point test to detect significant changes occurred in the relations between the two,so understanding our past real estate market and bank credit market linkage development process has a positive and important significance,and for future development of the laws,regulations and policies and monetary policy to provide theoretical support and basis.This article altogether divides into five parts,the first part is the introduction of why i wrote this paper and how i wrote this paper,i combs the domestic and foreign literature.It also tells reads about the logical mind i used to type this and finally what i’ve found.The second part is the introduction of the relationship between the real estate market and bank credit,through the analysis of different theoretical framework combined with the different conclusions of the empirical analysis of both the mainly existing views and research ideas,methods and the conclusion were compared and summarized.The third part is introduces the research methods,introduces the method and model for the empirical study of this paper is mainly used in and through the change of the dcc-garch,structure and Granger causality model of simple introduction and for the subsequent empirical analysis provides the theoretical guidance and basis.The fourth part is the empirical analysis of the real estate price and bank credit structure,considering the particularity of the time series data,after the initial data are processed by exploratory data analysis(EDA),is needed to determine statistical methods used by the data of some visual observation and statistical analysis then,using the DCC-GARCH model-to study the-empirical object,condition variable correlation coefficient obtained in real estate prices and bank credit,and the time-varying conditional correlation coefficient for change point detection,put an end to the change point into the sample with time window and Granger causality test to determine the causal relationship between the pilot structure before and after mutation of real estate prices and Bank credit.The fifth part is the conclusion and policy suggestion of the study,results showed that,in 2000 and 2009 real estate prices and bank credit dynamic correlation minimum.In 2003 both occurred structural mutation,change point before the real estate market and bank credit markets did not Granger causality,both the relative ratio is independent,but in change point after the two interact as both cause and effect,volume of such real estate prices and bank credit stimulate each other promote into spiral,thus put forward that we should improve financial and property system,the system construction of policy suggestions and advocates moderate supervision principle,but need to prevention and intervention to the price bubble in real estate market.