A Study On The Influence Of Shadow Bank On The Asymmetry Of China 's Monetary Policy

Milton Friedman at an early age for monetary policy given the asymmetry of the effectiveness of a clever metaphor: "Monetary policy is like a rope can roll freely,inflation can use this rope taut but you can not let go of it makes you realize stimulate economic growth." Now Empirical Research in Economics analysis also shows that the effectiveness of monetary policy in the actual implementation process play has asymmetric effect,combined with empirical results,we can roughly determine the symmetry of the two non-monetary policy different forms:(1) expansionary monetary policy at the time to play its role in promoting economic performance is relatively weak,the utility generated is also weak,while tight monetary policy to cool the economy inhibition relative strength(ie with expansion relatively weak monetary policy or inactive);utility power(2) monetary policy and the real economy where when the time period that is relevant to the purposes of the policy(ie the economic cycle boom phase and decline phase).Now in the process of economics,the role of monetary policy on economic entities began to gradually come out,therefore,to ascertain the asymmetric nature of the effectiveness of monetary policy effectiveness,for macroeconomic management,monetary policy better play its ability to iron out fluctuations in the economic cycle,with the theory and practice of great significance.Shadow bank system as a financial innovation derivatives,subprime crisis in 2008 after gradually began to be valued by the academic community,on the one hand shadow banking plays a similar commercial bank credit creation function,on the other hand is almost free from financial regulation,That means shadow banks to stimulate economic development,but also become the instability of the economy.Our shadow banks,though started late,but the development is quite fast,according to the statistical report,2016 People’s Bank of China recently released show that as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2015,financing the balance of our society has reached 138.14 trillion yuan, with the corresponding period last year growth rate of 12.4%.Among them,financing the balance of the shadow of trust loans,entrusted loans,corporate bonds and other banking community to 45.39 trillion yuan,accounting for 32.86% of the shadow banking has total social financing scale,which means that our shadow banking system have begun to play in the economy this important role can not be ignored.Expand the scale of shadow banking,its capacity to absorb idle funds in society and the social ability to fill the financing gap has become more powerful.So credit capacity by shadow banks can strengthen expansionary monetary policy and tight monetary policy to weaken,so that the original intention of the central bank monetary policy has a part to change;to make better use of monetary policy screed macroeconomic cyclical fluctuations even more to clear shadow Bank of monetary policy approach,with its advantages disadvantages away,earnestly carry forward on promoting the role of the shadow banking economy output.Through the use of CC-LM model SVAR model analyzes the shadow banking monetary policy asymmetry dual mechanism of action from theoretical and empirical aspects,the results of the analysis have shown that the effectiveness of expansionary monetary policy weaker than tightening monetary policy ability of the utility,in other words the real economy,the monetary authorities to stimulate the economy out of the recession relatively weaker than their cooling capacity of the economy overheating suppressed.Meanwhile,after the introduction of the shadow banking system,one can produce both positive and negative outputs to promote the effectiveness of monetary policy,which means that the shadow banking in strengthening the effectiveness of expansionary monetary policy to promote the positive direction of the output and also in the opposite direction of weakening the effectiveness of tight monetary policy;but from another aspect,the role of the shadow banking principles and affect the way the decision has not changed its credit conduction of monetary policy radically,making monetary policy asymmetric nature of change has not been produced,but from the point of view relative weakening effect on the utility of the same amount of gap between the positive and negative currency impact.