Research And Application Of Investment Risk Assessment For Mining Projects

This thesis originates from the national social science fund projects of “evaluation on the operation and management risk for overseas mining investment and study of the early warning system”(Item number: 12CGL008)and the humanities and social sciences research planning fund project of the Ministry of education,named “the important mineral resources development strategy selection of overseas risk assessment techniques”(Item number: 12YJA790208).The paper holds mining project investment risk assessment as main line,on the basis of the overview of risk management theory and research progress of mining project investment at home and abroad,and makes a comprehensive research with the application methods of genetic algorithm analytic hierarchy process,cloud matter-element model and Delphi method etc,then evaluates its investment risk with an example of J Company D Tungsten ore mining project.The main contents and conclusions are as follows.First of all,it reviews the research achievements of risk and risk management theory,summarizes and classifies the method of risk assessment,and makes the review of mining project investment risk at home and abroad.Secondly,it identified the main risk factors for mining project investment,on the basis,the risk assessment index system was built,including five level indexes and sixteen secondary indexes,each of which was given a detailed analysis.And the method of genetic algorithm analytic hierarchy process is introduced to determine the index weight.Then,the cloud theory was introduced into the Matter element theory,it constructed mining project investment risk assessment model based on the cloud matter element model,and used MATLAB software to calculate the risk grade membership.Finally,with the cloud matter element model applied to J Company D Tungsten ore mining project investment and through the risk assessment or analysis,it reached conclusion that the whole risk of it is “average”,whose geological resource risk and operational risk is on “low” rating,market and financial risk and natural risk is on “average” rating,policy and regulatory risk is on “high” rating.The result verifies that the model established has its feasibility for mining project investment risk assessment,which contains some theoretical and practical application values.