Research On Operational Risk Evaluation Of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project Based On Fuzzy Matter Element

With the rapid development of the country's urbanization,more and more people flock to the big cities,which has led to many urban problems.Today's large and medium-sized cities are plagued by traffic jams and environmental pollution.In order to reduce urban congestion and improve environmental quality,the state has vigorously developed energy-saving and environmentally-friendly urban rail transit projects.However,due to the inherent nature of urban rail transit,it is difficult for local government finance to support the huge amount of funds for rail transit projects.Therefore,the public-private partnership PPP model has become a new choice.However,the PPP project involves a wide range of projects,and the project cycle is long.The risks faced by all managers are also complicated.Therefore,it is necessary to study the risk of urban rail transit PPP projects,thereby reducing project risks and improving project success rate.Based on the characteristics of the PPP model and the operational characteristics of urban rail transit,this study summarizes and analyzes the research status at home and abroad.Through the risk identification research of PPP project,it is determined that the research selects literature review method,interview research method and questionnaire survey method to identify the risk,and finally determines the risk factor index,including 6 first-level indicators and 15 second-level indicators.Therefore,the operational risk evaluation index system of urban rail transit PPP project is established,and the reliability and validity of the index system are tested,and the scientific and objective nature of the indicator system is determined.Thirdly,through the comparative analysis of each evaluation method,the fuzzy matter-element risk evaluation model based on fuzzy mathematics and matter-element theory is determined,and the operation steps of the fuzzy matter-element evaluation model are introduced in detail.Finally,combined with the S city subway line 1 project example,the weight value and index value of the risk indicator are determined by expert scoring and questionnaire survey,and then the established fuzzy matter element evaluation model is combined with Excel and Matlab software.The project instance is calculated and analyzed to obtain the risk factors faced by the project instance during the operation phase.Then use the matter-element model to further determine the overall risk status and key risk factors of the project,and conclude that the overall risk status of the example project is moderate risk andbiased towards medium-high risk.Risk response measures are proposed for key risk factors in the project.It also proves the scientificity and feasibility of the evaluation model established in this study,and also provides certain reference value for the risk management of the future operation of this kind of project.