| With the construction of the "Silk Road Economic Belt",the trading environment,the competition of the logistics and trade flows of the area in the future will be improved significantly.At the same time in order to investigate the developing mechanism of export flow,based on the new trade theory,the trade growth can also be further decomposed into "old product export increase" and "new product export increase",namely "intensive marginal" and "marginal expansion" two kinds of marginal effect.So from the perspective of agricultural trade,this paper put the logistics performance index into the trade gravity model,to analysis the influence of the international logistics competitiveness of the Silk Road Economic Belt to the agricultural products exports and the dual marginal.The empirical results show that the exporter's international logistics performance has significant role in promoting agricultural exports,and the export growth is main from the contribution of the intensive margin,which is the increasing of traditional export goods flow.And the importer's logistics performance has U-shaped effect on agricultural products exports: for the importer whose logistics performance is lower than the world average levels,the improvement of the logistics performance may inhibit the growth of the exporter's agricultural products trade,and this effect is mainly from the reducing of the intensive margin;For importer whose logistics performance is higher than the world average levels,has a significant export promotion effect,and the increase of trade flows is largely due to the improvement of the extensive marginal.These conclusions will help understand the influence extent and direction of international logistics to the agricultural products exports,and make full use of the considerable trade promotion action of the logistics performance,realize the prosperity of agricultural trade of the Silk Road Economic Belt. |
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