Demand Survey Over Long-term Care Insurance And Related Funding Capacity Study In Zhejiang Province

According to the internationally agreed criteria set out by the UN,if more than 10% population are more than or equal to 60 years old in a specified society,it can be defined as an aging society.Given the fact that around 10.2% of our population were more than or equal to 60 years old in 2000,we already have headed into an aging society since then.However,aged population proportion in Zhejiang Province was already more than 10% in 1987,which means Zhejiang stepped into such milestone much earlier compared with the nation.By the end of 2015,the aged population in Zhejiang has reached 9.85 million,constituting 20.2% of the total population.Amongst,the number of senior citizens no less than 80 years old was 1.558 million,covering 15.84% of the aged population.All aforementioned indicates the severity of ageing degree in Zhejiang Province.In Zhejiang,around 695.5 thousand elderly people are disable or semi-disable at present,contributing 7.07% of aged population.The possibility for the elder to fall ill,get injured or suffer disability can be steadily increasing with age,which demands increasing needs for long-run health care accordingly.Meanwhile,due to long-term effect of Population and Family Planning Policy,family size has been shrunken and “four-two-one” inverted pyramid family structure has been prevailing,which means the third generations have to shoulder the burden to support 6 people of last two generations.In addition,population mobility because of rapid but regionally uneven development in economics results in increasing number of empty nesters.The elder left behind in under-developed regions lack not only financial support but also mental care.Shrinking family size,“four-two-one” inverted pyramid family structure and empty nester all can weaken the ability of family units to support those senior citizens.Especially for those elder people who need long-term health care,current family mode can no longer fulfill such need.Growing ageing population will be a severe social problem which can block economic development and threaten social security system.Given current social medical care system high in coverage but poor in quality,it's urgent to establish long-term care insurance system of Chinese characteristics.However,because of uneven economic development and culture differences among regions,it's impossible to build such long-term care insurance system in short time range.Instead,careful deliberation taking realistic regional conditions into considerations should be adopted.Firstly,after systematic analysis of long-term care insurance,particularly in comparative analysis of domestic and foreign fund-raising models,we recommend to establish social insurance based long-term care insurance system in Zhejiang.Secondly,we conducted demand survey and expense prediction with regard to long-term care insurance.In this section,the first step was to investigate the current condition of aged population and their medical care demands in Zhejiang in order to confirm the necessity of establishment of long-term care insurance system.Then the demand for long-term care insurance in Zhejiang was surveyed via questionnaire which included physical condition,family background,desire for long-term care insurance and implementation model.Logit regression model was used to analyze major factor influencing demand for long-term care insurance and to predict insurance expense.Thirdly,in order to investigate the fund-raising entity,statistic model was employed to evaluate the financing ability of government,enterprises and individuals respectively.We used ARIMA model to predict the financing ability of government,and to confirm the feasible fund-raising entity for long-term care insurance system.Last but not the least,based on the demand survey over long-term care insurance and financing ability in Zhejiang,establishment strategy of long-term care insurance was formed and at the same time suggestion with respect to development and optimization of such insurance system was put forward.Questionnaire survey results uncovered the strong desires of long-term care insurance among residents in Zhejiang and wishes that government establish social insurance based long-term care insurance.In terms of financing entity,because of over burdens enterprises will shoulder,thus government and individuals may be well considered as major fund-raising entities.In the last,we provided design ideas and feasible advice for long-term care insurance in Zhejiang.