Spatiotemporal Evolution And Regulation Of Land Use Conflicts Of Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomerations In Rapid Urbanization

Land use conflict has been the main problem restricting sustainable land use, even threatening the healthy socioeconomic development. The purpose of this paper is to accelerate the new urbanization and development, the process of the construction of ecological civilization and coordinate the relationship between urban development and the land use. On the basis of the interpretation of land use conflict connotation, PSR evaluation model and the spatial autocorrelation method were used to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of land conflicts from 1999-2010 in Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomerations.The correlation coefficient, the curve regression and the coupling degree model was discussed to analysis the relationship between urbanization and land use conflict. ARIMA model and BP neural network was employed to predict the development trends of land conflicts in different scenarios from 2010-2020. The results showed that:(1) The intensity of land conflicts increased; Spatial pattern tended to be centralized and spatial agglomeration improved;(2) There is a positive correlation between urbanization and the intensity of land use conflict, with the continuous advancement of urbanization, the level of land use conflict will still be in a rising trend; The coordination degree is higher and higher;(3) The intensity of land conflicts will still worsen in the future but in slow growth rate; Finally, the countermeasures, such as coordinating the man-earth system, adapting the new normal of economic growth, optimizing the industrial structures, increasing efficiency in land use and adjusting land use structure have been put forward so as to mitigate the intensity of land use conflicts.