Study On The Effect On Incremental Real Estate Price Forecast Among Consumers In Changsha City

The real estate market occupies an important part in China's national economy,In recent years, the government has continued to regulate the real estate market heavily by taking a series of approaches, especially in the adjustment of land supply, the policy implementation such as restrictions on commercial properties and property tax, the policy-making of strengthen the market regulation, the improvement of the housing supply system and the discouragement of speculative real-estate spending, which has an direct impact on the psychology of the market participants, and then the development trend of real estate market within a certain period of time.To build and conduct reasonable and good degree of expectations will do good to establish the confidence of consumers and investors in the real estate market, which can promote the recovery and orderly development of the real estate industry and then control the real estate prices. Therefore, with overall considering the attitude and expectations of market participants, this paper has set up a consumer expectations index model from the aspect of supply and demand in real estate market, and has studied on the short-term prediction by choosing appropriate methods. The main results are as follows:Firstly, with a proper consideration of present status of the real estate market and the factors affecting consumers expectations at the theoretical basis, this paper set up a consumer expectations index system and then gain the results of consumer expectations factors describing the market situation.Secondly, this paper has quantified the influence level of people's expectations on housing price with the analysis of FDV and compared the quantitative degree of RSI and Bias. In order to improve the quantization accuracy further, it introduces the study on combined prediction method based on quantitative results at the basis of former two indexes.In addition, this paper makes modeling research of short-term predictions based on the constructed consumer expectations index. Applying the VAR model of Econometrics to the field of real estate, it makes short-term predictions about the consumer expectations model, combined with the consumer demand index and the developer supply index.Finally, taking an example of quarterly figures of Changsha City from 2002 to 2014, this paper establishes consumer expectations index and makes short-term prediction and analysis by VAR model. And it demonstrates the practicability of the short-term prediction model of the index based on explaining the feasibility of the consumer expectations index. And then, we can obtain the influence extent of people's expectations to housing prices in the next three years.