Calculation Of The Potential Economic Growth Rate And The Path Of Structure Transformation In China

The potential growth rate refers to growth rate of the economic output when all resources are fully utilized under certain technical conditions,which is mainly determined by the supply of the economy. Structure transformation can change the economic supply, thus affecting the potential growth rate. Economic development in China has entered a "new normal" background, researching the effect of the structure change in potential growth, estimating potential growth rate in China, exploring the reason of change in Chinese economic growth, will be the theoretical and practical issues to be solved. In this paper, based on the current research of scholars at home and abroad, analyzed the theoretical logic of influence of economic structure in potential growth, constructed a structural time-varying elasticity production function, estimated the potential economic growth rate in China, and researched the mechanism and the path of how structure transformation promoting growth based on the realistic background in China.This paper firstly studied the concept and the influencing factors of potential growth, analyzed the logic mechanism of how structure transformation affecting economic growth through the deductive method, which has formed the theoretical framework. Further, by building a structure type time-varying elasticity production function, made the structure changes incorporated into the analysis framework of economic growth, using the fixed effect model of panel data and stochastic frontier model to estimate the dynamic characteristics during this period of output elasticity of factors, and estimated the change trend of potential economic growth rate in China. On the basis of this, this paper from the five dimension, including factor structure, industrial structure, population structure, urban and rural structure, regional structure, to do some empirical study on the effect mechanism of structure transformation in potential growth. In the factor structure dimension, this paper has verified the dynamic characteristics from the capital driven to innovation driven by taking the interval elastic estimation method of panel data. In the industrial structure, this paper analyzed the mechanism of structure effect of economic growth in China by using structure analysis method, and analyzed the process of "structural acceleration" and "structural reduction" of short term and long-term perspective in Chinese economic growth. In the population structure, this paper analyzed how the change of population age structure effected Chinese economic growth, further analyzed the variation tendency of the growth contribution rate of change of population structure based on structure analysis method. In the urban and rural structure, from two aspects, including population and employment, analyzed the impact of urban structure transformation for long-term growth trend, further used the panel threshold model to verify the hoisting mechanism of how urban and rural structure transformation with the transaction efficiency change effect in long-term growth. In the regional structure, this paper measured direction and scale of the factor flow in transition of regional economic structure, and analyzed the relationship between the regional structural transformation and the potential growth by spatial panel model, and then draw the regional structural transformation mechanism to upgrade the potential economic growth rate. Finally, on the basis of the above research, this paper discussed the structure transformation path of ascension and the policy of potential growth rate on new normal background.The main contributions of this paper are:(1)Analyzed the connotation and factors of potential economic growth rate based on the basic theory of macroeconomics, on the basis of that, sorted out the logic of influence of economic structure on the potential growth rate, and constructed the theoretical analysis framework on structure transformation to improve the potential growth rate. (2) Calculated the current potential growth rate in China and made the judgment:the potential growth rate decreased significantly in recent years, nearly ten years, the actual growth rate was mainly affected by the potential growth rate, since 2010 for the slow economic growth, due to the potential growth rate down lead, we should enhance the economic potential growth in China through the transformation of economic structure. (3) From the empirical point of view, discussed the lifting mechanism of potential growth in China, respectively from the aspects of factor structure transformation, industrial structure transformation, population structure transformation, urban and rural structure transformation and regional structure transformation, thus provide the basis for the path and policy to enhance the potential economic growth rate in China.