Analysis On Driving Forces Of Land Use Change And Simulation Of Scenarios Of Qinhuangdao

Land use and land cover has changed remarkably under the physical and human factors.Recently,researching on land use and land cover change has become the hot topic of global change research.The driving force of land use and land cover change and simulation of land use change scenarios also achieve outstanding results.The quantitative research on the driving forces of land use and land cover change is mainly based on mathematical model and spatial model.About the simulation of land use change scenarios,CLUE-S model is a kind of widely used method.We chose Qinhuangdao as the research object and 2000-2015 as the study period because of special position and urban functional.And we chose the Landsat TM/ETM/OLI remote sensing images of 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 interpret them.Based on ENVI4.6,ArcGIS10.0 and SPSS19.0,We analyzed land use quantitative change and spatial change.The purpose is to reveal the internal driving mechanism.The CLUE-S model is used to forecast the future land use of Qinhuangdao in three scenarios.The purpose is to provide support for the formulation of land policy,the protection of ecological environment and the decision of urban planning in the future.The results show that:During the study period,the number of cultivated land shows a fluctuated downward trend.Through the analysis of stepwise regression model,the proportion of value of primary industry output,the total population and the total power of agricultural machinery demonstrate a positive correlation with the number of cultivated land,and the total amount of GDP has a negatively correlated with the quantity of cultivated land.About the spatial driving factor for the change of cultivated land,through the Logistic regression model,the probability distribution of cultivated land is increasing away from the county road,railway,highway,river and town center.With the increase of altitude and slope,the possibility of cultivated land decrease.The altitude and slope limit the distribution of cultivated land.Therefore,the cultivated land tends to be distributed in the area with suitable altitude and slope.With the increasing of population density and per capita GDP,the probability of cultivated land distribution is smaller.The quantity of construction land increased year by year,the total power of agricultural machinery,the urban population,the value of agricultural output and the total social investment are positively related to the area of construction land,animal husbandry output value have the negative correlation between construction.From the perspective of spatial driving factors of construction land,the greater the population density,the greater the possibility of construction land.Inland expansion has become a trend.The closer the distance from the center of the city or county,the higher the ratio of construction land.This indicates that the expansion of construction land is still mainly based on the outward expansion of urban areas during the study period.The higher the altitude,the lower the ratio of construction land.Besides cultivated land and construction land,another important land type studied in this paper is ecological land.During the study period,the ecological land is increasing with the increase of forestry.There is a positive correlation between the value of forestry output and ecological land.In addition,Qinhuangdao as a famous coastal eco-tourism City,the protection of ecological land has been the top priority of government work.Policy orientation is another important factor in the significant increase of ecological land.Grain output of unit area and urban population demonstrate a negative correlation with the number of ecological land.From the perspective of spatial driving factors of ecological land,the ecological land tends to be distributed in the area with high altitude and slope.On the area of large population density and advanced economies,the possibility of ecological land is smaller.And far away from the center of the county town,away from the coastline and expressway,the greater the proportion of regional ecological land.Ecological land is distributed nearby County Road,highway and river.Based on the current land use map of Qinhuangdao of 2010,we use CLUE-S model to simulate the land use distribution of 2015.And compared with the land use map of 2015 to verify the accuracy,the Kappa value is 0.94,which indicates that the simulation result is effective.The results show that the driving factor is reasonable,and the CLUE-S model can be used to simulate the land use of Qinhuangdao.For the scenario simulation,based on the current land use map of Qinhuangdao of 2015,we design three scenarios of natural growth,ecological priority and economic development.There are significant differences in spatial distribution of land use under different scenarios.Under the condition of natural growth,the number of construction land and forest land increases,and the number of cultivated land and grassland were decreases,while the other land types don't change obviously.The ecological priority scenario is focusing on land ecological protection and restoration of ecological environment.The number of forest land increases significantly,and the construction land and cultivated land increased slightly.The number of the others land reduces,and the grassland is roll-out mainly.Under the circumstance of economic development,the number of construction land increases greatly.The center of cities and counties expands to the periphery of the city.We should keep the number of basic farmland and set the natural protection area restricted area.The area of forest land increases slightly,other land types showed a downward trend,and the cultivated land is greatly reduced.