Research On The Trade Potential Of Yunnan Province To South Asian Countries Under The "One Belt And One Road" Initiative

After the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the initiative of “One Belt and One Road” has been explicitly written into the party constitution.With the strong national support for this strategy and the world's attention to it,the initiative of OBOR has been deep into people's heart and has gradually played its due positive role.OBOR is considered as one of the longest and most promising economic corridors in the world.It connects China with South Asia,Southeast Asia,Central Asia,the Middle East,Europe and Africa and is the representative of regional economic integration in the new era.In OBOR initiative,Yunnan Province is identified as the external radiation center in the southwest region.It will play a crucial bridging role in the trade between China and South Asia and Southeast Asian countries.Yunnan Province,as the radiation center in the southwest region,can not be ignored in its complementarity with OBOR initiative.OBOR has transformed Yunnan Province from a border pillar province into an open center with a strategic bridgehead.With its excellent geographical location and its multi-party communication platform such as the South Expo and the Kunming Trade Fair,Yunnan has gradually spread the idea of OBOR to all over the world.At the same time,as the only province that has conducted full-scale economic and trade cooperation with South Asian countries,Yunnan Province plays an important role in the trade between China and South Asia.Under this opportunity,Yunnan Province is moving from a “peripheral” remote area to a frontier province and an external radiation center for economic openness and exudes its charming charm.This paper first describes the background and significance of the thesis topic to determine the value of the topic,and reviews the relevant International Trade Theory and Regional Economic Integration Theory and makes a comprehensive account of the literature on predecessors' research on OBOR and the study on trade potential in order to lay the theoretical foundation for the full text.Secondly,from the perspectiveof country structure and industry structure,we analyze the trade status of Yunnan and South Asian countries from 2000 to 2016,and calculate the trade complementarity index between Yunnan Province and South Asian countries,and explore the problems existing in trade over the years.Thirdly,we analyze the trade potential mechanism between Yunnan and South Asia,and analyze the real factors affecting the trade potential of Yunnan Province,including GDP,infrastructure construction,economic openness,language culture and so on.Finally,panel data econometric method was selected to make empirical analysis on the above data.Based on the original model,a new explanatory variable was introduced to establish the trade gravity model and the trade potential of Yunnan Province with South Asia was calculated based on the newly established gravity model.With this result,we will explore the trade potential of Yunnan Province in the process of trade with South Asian countries and find out the existing problems.Through the research,this paper finds that the trade potential between Yunnan Province and South Asia needs to be further explored.According to the calculation result of the trade potential of Yunnan Province,we can find that it is potentiality-reengineering for Bhutan and Nepal,potentiality-exploiting for Sri Lanka,and it has huge potentiality with the remaining five South Asian countries.In general,Yunnan Province needs to actively look for promotion factors to promote trade between the two sides and enhance their trade potential.Accordingly,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations on how to enhance Yunnan's trade potential with South Asia: externally,Yunnan Province can seek cooperation with soft projects in South Asian countries and expand trade through such means as talent exchange and tourism cooperation,increase its investment in underdeveloped countries such as Afghanistan and Bhutan to strengthen their infrastructure for providing support for its trade contacts,conduct a multi-party dialogue mechanism to enhance the understanding of South Asian countries on OBOR initiative,and strengthen understanding of South Asian countries and establish a special cross-border e-commerce platform and logistics network to increase trade and reducetrade costs;internally,Yunnan Province should step up personnel education,especially the cultivation of language talents,in order to deepen its ties with South Asian countries,and promote cross-border RMB settlement and the establishment of an international financial center in Yunnan Province.