Comprehensive Dynamic Modeling Method For Reliability Growth And Project Management Performance Of Large Scientific Engineering Project

Large scientific engineering projects are exceedingly important in the modernization process of country,promoting the progress of the national innovation technology,relating to the national security strategy,and reflecting the comprehensive strength of country.Generally,there are three characteristics of large scientific engineering projects: scientific research attribute,sustainable development attribute and the universality of general engineering projects.It determines that the large scientific engineering project needs perfect project management system.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out project management performance research for the large scientific engineering projects.However,due to the strategic significance and research status of scientific engineering projects,the project quality performance has been more concerned.Importantly,system reliability is the core of project quality performance,even an important foundation for further project management decision.Therefore,it is necessary to evaluate the system reliability growth before the project management performance.Above all,a large scientific project under construction in China is pointed as the research object in this paper.According to the trial run stage of the project,the research of reliability growth evaluation is carried out,and the predictive evaluation research of project management performance is followed based on the reliability growth results.Aiming at completed trial run phases of the research object,the study of reliability growth evaluation method is carried out.In the process of modeling,Bayes theory is used.And the multi-subsystem structure of system,and complex experimental process,putting subsystems into operation in batches for several stages,are considered.Simultaneously,In order to simplify the calculation process of model,the equivalence conversion method,the moment equivalent method and the number of failure prediction method are combined,solving the problem of reliability growth information inheritance and the verification problem of the model.Then a targeted Bayesian reliability growth evaluation model is established.Finally,a numerical analysis based on the actual test data is carried out,to verify the correctness and validity of the model.Aiming at the future trial run phases of the research object,the predictive evaluation method research of project management performance is followed.Based on the reliability growth evaluation results,aiming at the operation of the project,the rate variable fundamental in-tree is combined with the general system dynamics modeling ideas.The general system dynamics modeling idea is introduced to simulate "run-maintenance" cycle process of system,varying model variables.And the future values of project management performance factors are simulated by the rate variable fundamental in-tree method.Finally,according to the historical test run data of the research object,the future basic planning and the reliability growth evaluation results,a case analysis is carried out.The correctness and validity of the model are verified,And then the relationship of the system reliability growth on the project management performance evaluation indexes are analyzed through the sensitivity analysis.This paper enriches the theoretical method research of reliability growth evaluation,and extends research field of project management performance.At the same time,this research provides method basis for the analysis of reliability data and pre-management of project in engineering practice.