Simulation Of Closed-loop Supply Chain Based On Predictive Control In E-commerce Environment

E-commerce is the product of the development of science and technology information,which is based on information network technology as a means to commodity exchange as the center of business activities,is the traditional business activities of all aspects of electronic,network and information.The bullwhip effect is a phenomenon that the demand information is enlarged in the supply chain,which makes the economic benefit of the supply chain system impaired and will lead to the collapse of the whole supply chain.The emergence of e-commerce makes the closed-loop supply chain network becomes more complex,bullwhip effect on its impact has become more significant.Predictive control algorithm has been widely used in various fields.Facing the new challenges of supply chain management,experts and scholars introduced the predictive control algorithm into the management of the supply chain system,which has get satisfactory control effect.Bullwhip effect is a measure of the most important performance indicators of the supply chain system.This paper analyzes the bullwhip effect in the supply chain.The bullwhip effect causes an increase in inventory costs,an overproduction,and a decrease in customer satisfaction.The main reasons for this are: demand forecasting,price fluctuations,and order increases.The bullwhip effect causes an increase in inventory costs,an overproduction,and a decrease in customer satisfaction.The main reasons for this are: demand forecasting,price fluctuations,and order increases.Dynamic matrix control algorithm(DMC)includes three parts: prediction model,rolling optimization and feedback correction.In this paper,the steps of the algorithm are described,and the selecting principle and setting step are given.Using MATLAB to complete the programming of its algorithm.Then,simulation experiments are performed on single input single output and multiple input multiple output,respectively.Experimental results show the effectiveness of the system parameters selection and tuning steps.The dynamic matrix control algorithm is applied to the closed-loop supply chain management in the e-commerce environment.The essence is to adjust the order quantity and production quantity of the nodes in the supply chain through the rolling optimization and feedback correction of the algorithm.And finally the bullwhip effectin the supply chain system is reduced and suppressed.In this paper,a dynamic model of dual-channel e-commerce closed-loop supply chain network is established,Kalman filter is used to estimate the system state,unmeasured disturbance and noise.The prediction model is deduced,the objective function of the system is determined,a quadratic optimization constrained optimization algorithm is proposed to transform the dynamic supply chain management problem into a standard quadratic optimization problem.The simulation results show that DMC algorithm can provide the optimized production inventory policy for the supply chain system,enhance the stability of the system and improve the competitiveness of the chain,and ultimately to maximize the benefits while applied to the management of closed-loop supply chain under e-commerce environment.