| In January 2011, Shanghai and Chongqing were approved as pilot cities for real estate tax reform by the State Council. The focus of the social public on the real estate tax reform policy is whether there is an impact on house prices. From the perspective of the real estate market, during the five years, house prices remain stably rising, and house prices of most cities rose quickly, though many factors lead to this result. So this article will study the impact of the real estate tax reform on house prices from theoretical and empirical perspective. From the point of theoretical research, the traditional view think real estate tax will lead to high house prices, benefit view claims that the real estate tax has no impact on the house prices,and new view claims that real estate tax will affect the price of residential and non-residential property. In empirical research, this paper assumes the real estate tax reform as a natural experiment, treats Shanghai and Chongqing as treatment groups, and selects the control group from the dimension such as real gross domestic product per capita, growth rate of gross domestic product, industrial structure indicators, housing price to income ratioand population density. Basing on panel data between January 2009 and June 2016, the paper will use Difference in Difference model to find the net benefit of real estate tax reform on the local house prices. The empirical results show that the Shanghai real estate tax reform had no significant inpact on house prices in both long term and short term. Chongqing real estate tax reform property had no significant impact on house prices in the long term but did a little influence in a short time. Learning from the empirical results, there are some shortcomings in the process of real estate tax reform, such as no clear purpose of the real estate tax,small scope of the pilot cities, low rate and imperfect property information system, so the system of real estate tax can be further improved. |
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