Study On Climate Change Perception And Adaptation Of Herdsmen In Inner Mongolia

As the most prominent changes in the global environnental change,climate change is expected to have more remarkable influence on the precipitation and temperature patterns,especially have a profound impact on the social economic system and natural ecological system in the arid regions.Inner Mongolia is located in arid and semi-arid areas,its environment is fragile and sensitive to climate chang.The grassland of Inner Mongolia is an important part of the Eurasian steppe which is the most representative zonal vegetation type in the temperate steppe of northern china.For highly depending on natural resources,grassland animal husbandry is sensitive and vulnerable to climate change.We should strengthen the adaptive ability to climate change in the pastoral areas of Inner Mongolia.Based on the routine meteorological monitoring data,combined semi-structured interviews and open questionnaires,with binomial logistic regression,multivariate probit model and GIS technology,four ecosystem types of the Inner Mongolia,namely meadow steppe(Hulunbeier),typical steppe(Xilingol)desert steppe region(Siziwangqi)and desert(Alax)were investigated,we are focusing on three aspects:the perception of the climate change of herdsmen,the adaptive mearsures to climate change and the determinants that affect the effectiveness of the adaptive strategy and policy.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The annual average temperature of the study area showed a significant uptrend during 1981-2014(P<0.05),the trend of warming in Hulunbeier City,Xilingol Meng,Siziwangqi and Alax is significantly change with the rate of 0.26?/10a,0.36?/10a,0.41/10a and 0.46?/10a respectively.A decreasing trend of Winter average temperature has emerged in Hulunbeier with the rate of 0.36?/10a(P<0.05)while which show no significant upward trend in other three study areas.The annual precipitation changes are not significant(P>0.05).(2)The perception of the climate change of herdsmen is not entirely accurate and not entirely consistent with the historical trend.Because of the differentiation of the ecological and economic background,the herdsmen have different perception on climate change.At the same time,herdsmen's perception of climate change is affected by the implementation of breeding dual responsibility system and public grassland.(3)In order to cope with climate change,The short-term emergency adaption measures taken by the herdsmen include purchase fodder,sale livestock,livestock improvement,lending,migration,ensure adequate drinking water and strengthen epidemic prevention of livestock.The group-household grassland management and "public grassland" may be more suitable for Inner Mongolia animal husbandry as a long-term adaptation strategy responsing to the climate change.(4)The most effective strategy in a series of policies implemented by government on grassland in pastoral of Inner Mongolia to maintain the sustainable utilization of grassland resources and adapt to climate change identified by herdsmen is "grass-livestock balance" policy.(5)Differentiation of the ecological background,the herdsmen's own situation and the information of animal husbandry production are the main determinants influencing climate change decisions of the herdsmen.The herdsmen in the area where the annual mean temperature and annual precipitation is higher are more willing to take "herdsmen grazing" and "traditional nomadic" as adaptation measures.Male headed households are more willing to choose government policy as adaptation measures,the elderly will more support implementation policy of"grass-livestock balance".With the increase of education level of herdsmen,they are more willing to choose suitable and reasonable measures according to their own situation.An increase in net income per capita and a single way of livelihood do not favor the government's policy.(6)In adaptation to climate change,the main limitation factors for herdsmen include:inadequate infrastructure,lack of funds,water resources and animal husbandry information,technology and labor shortage.Meanwhile,improving livelihood diversity,increasing technology training and guidance,and ensuring the sources of information available could improve the ability of herdsmen to adapt to climate change.Adaptation to local condition,from bottom to top,and respecting the initiative,diversityand creativity of the herdsmen are the best ways in policy-making.