Prediction Of The Electricity Consumption In Hebei Province In The Light Of The Coordinated Development Of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

Nowadays a country or a region's economic growth and people's life cannot leave the power input,adequate and reliable supply of electricity consumption is a vital macroeconomic problems of the guarantee of normal economic and social development.Therefore,the prediction analysis on the electricity consumption is perceived to be a growing hot topic.National economy began to shift from rapid growth to the steady growth in such a situation that China's economy has entered a period of new normal.On account of power consumption decreasing of energy-intensive industry caused by economic transition,the growth of power industry,as a pillar industry of national economy,has slowed down significantly.Nevertheless,electric power replacement,as one of the major initiatives to increase the proportion of electricity in the energy consumption,is conducive to realize energy consumption transition and solve environmental pollution problems in the current situation and policy that the state promotes the energy consumption revolution,intensify efforts on energy conservation and emission reduction.And the enforcement of coordinated development of Beijing-tianjinhebei policy will bring about the optimization and adjustment of energy policy,industrial structure,population distribution,ecological environment,which is closely related to its electric power development and will affect the change of the economic and social development and electricity demand in Hebei province.Facing the new normal and power supply and demand contradiction,it is important to explore Hebei electricity consumption influence mechanism and forecast electricity consumption and predict the electricity consumption according to the future coordinated development situation which is very significant.It's good to Hebei for scientifically formulating electrical energy plan and energy conservation and emission reduction policy.It can also guarantee the sustainable economic and social development and achieve the long-term implementation of collaborative planning objectives on the basis of economic and social sustainable development.First of all,on the basis of carding the research status at home and abroad,this paper analyzed and expounded the power consumption and forecasting methods;And then,this paper elucidated the function orientation of Hebei province and make an analysis of mathematical statistics of Hebei electricity consumption and its influencing factors based on the collaborative development policy of the Beijing-tianjin-hebei region.On this basis,this paper decomposed Hebei electric power consumption into population effect,economic scale effect,industrial structure effect,the strength of production power consumption,urbanization level,the residents consumption and the residents electricity consumption intensity,and quantitatively estimated the contribution degree of various factors on the electric power consumption using LMDI decomposition model from two points of view of production and life electricity utilization.The results indicated that the positive driving factors were population effect,economic scale effect,urbanization level and the residents consumption and the cumulative contribution rate were 15.07%,177.80%,4.8%,7.52%,the negative driving factors were industrial structure effect,the strength of production power consumption and the residents electricity consumption intensity,and the cumulative contribution rate were-80.32%,-24.26%,-4.81%.And according to the results of the analysis of the effect of various factors on the electricity consumption mechanism,this paper constructed a corresponding power consumption forecasting model in this based on improved artificial swarm algorithm.Finally,on the basis of the history of the development in Hebei province situation and the relevant planning policies,this paper defined the benchmark coordination,planning coordination and highly collaboration three different scenarios,and set up different parameters according to different development level of different population,real GDP,the proportion of secondary industry,the strength of electricity consumption,the urbanization level,residents consumption level.And then it forecasted the power consumption in Hebei province from 2015 to 2020.It indicates that get to 2020,in cooperation scenario,the benchmark of Hebei electric power consumption is up to 394.7 billion KWH.In planning collaboration scenario,it amounts to 415.4 billion KWH.In a highly collaborative scenario,the total is 412.8 billion KWH.