| The continuous development of industrialization has made energy consumption one of the important driving forces for the economic development of all countries.The global energy consumption has continuously increased.At the same time,fossil fuels have been extensively exploited and utilized.For the foreseeable future,the dominance of fossil fuels can not be shaken.The global energy crisis has become increasingly impending.The establishment of the Xiong'an New District marks that the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei and the non-capitalist easement have entered a higher stage of development.The factors affecting the consumption of fossil fuels in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province are studied and the consumption is predicted.The goal of saving energy and reducing consumption in Hebei area is of great significance to the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.Based on the introduction of the research background and significance,this paper uses the STIRPAT model as the basic framework and selects the population,per capita disposable income,fossil energy consumption intensity as the influencing factors.In order to eliminate the multicollinearity of small samples,A more stable linear equation reflecting the relationship between fossil energy consumption and the influencing factors in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Provinces was established,and the influencing factors of fossil energy consumption in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei from 2006 to 2015 were quantitatively analyzed.On this basis,the explanatory power of each influencing factor is analyzed through the model aided method.In addition,based on the fitted linear equation,the article designs five different development scenarios and predicts the fossil fuel consumption of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei under five scenarios from 2016 to 2030 through scenario prediction.Finally,based on the analysis of the influential factors and consumption of fossil energy consumption in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations.The empirical study shows that: First,from an overall perspective,the average annual growth rate of fossil energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2006 to 2015 was 3.44%.In 2014,due to the active energy-saving activities in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei provinces,A series of cuts in coal-fired policy led to the first negative growth in fossil energy consumption.From a regional perspective,Hebei Province contributed the most to the overall fossil energy consumption of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Province,and the total consumption of coal products accounted for 83.41% of that of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.In FY15,fossil energy consumption in Beijing and Tianjin accounted for 12.36% and 19.58% of the total respectively in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Among them,the consumption structure of fossil fuels in Beijing is mainly oil and natural gas.The ideas and measures for adjusting energy structure bring experiences and enlightenment to the energy-saving work of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.However,Beijing,as the capital city,has difficulty replicating energy structure measures in other cities.Second,judging from the factor decomposition results,among the factors affecting the consumption of fossil fuels,the population has the strongest energy explanation and the per capita disposable income explanation Second,the ability to explain the intensity of fossil energy consumption is the weakest.This result shows from the side that between 2006 and 2015,the overall economic growth pattern of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is still dominated by extensive growth and supplemented by intensive growth.Third,the scenario of fossil energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region between 2016 and 2030 The forecast shows that by raising the technological level and continuously reducing the intensity of fossil energy consumption,it is the development model that is most conducive to the slowdown in the growth of fossil energy consumption in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei. |
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