Analysis On The Change And Influencing Factors Of Marine Fisheries In China

With the progress of fishing technology,the global fishing intensity increases and marine pollution is getting worse,the marine fishery resources show a declining trend.Based on the declining status of marine fishery resources in China,under the backdrop of offshore fisheries mainly rely on mariculture maintenance,the sustainability of marine fishing in coastal areas of China is not optimistic due to different natural endowments,technological level and policy intensity.Therefore,it is necessary to study the changes and the influencing factors of marine catches in China,so as to analyze the present situation of marine fishery resources development and the reasons for its decline.This paper mainly includes the following five aspects:First,on the basis of defining the concept of marine fishing quantity,this paper discusses the natural factors and human factors that influence the amount of marine fishing.By means of qualitative analysis,this paper expounds the factors that influence the amount of marine fishery resources,including the mass emergency,the contradiction of the management of the organization,the tragedy of the commons,the expansion of fishing intensity,the progress of fishing technology and the serious pollution of sea area.At the same time,the quantitative analysis indexes such as the area of mariculture,the level of mariculture,the number of marine fish,the marine fishing boats,the promotion of fishery technology and the population of marine fishery were determined.Second,spatial and temporal trend analysis of China’s marine fishing.In the 11 coastal provinces as the research object,to the performance of the 2000-2014 national overall level and coastal provinces of marine catches the difference from the angle of time,that in the time evolution,China’s marine fishery resources are declining in area and overall.Three nodes in 2000,2007 and 2014 were used to measure the evolution of marine catch in the coastal areas.The results showed that the low-level regional provinces increased and the high-level regional provinces decreased.The marine fishery resources are declining in space angle.Third,using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model to establish the prediction model of Chinese marine fishery total catch,to forecast and analyze the development state of marine fishery resources in China.The static forecast shows that the marine fishing volume fluctuates slowly,and the dynamic forecasting shows that the future will be declining.According to the dynamic estimation results show that the total output of marine fisheries in China showed a significant downward trend in 2000-2020,indicating that after 2008,the slow rise to 2020 still can not achieve the goal of decay.The efficiency of the input indicators using multi-stage DEA estimates China marine fishing total output value,the results show that the 2000-2006 year,the input indicators comprehensive efficiency,pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency is always 1,high efficiency,with the passage of time,after 2007,marine fishing was obviously decreased,the low efficiency of input variables is outstanding;the target output analysis shows that the optimization of input factors to reasonable allocation of resources,to promote the marine fishing quantity check ring back up.Fourth,from the angle of input-output,according to the quantitative analysis index,studying the quantitative influencing factors.By constructing the vector autoregressive model of panel data,this paper analyzes the factors that influence the amount of marine fishing in the coastal provinces and cities by 2000-2014,and analyzes the influence degree.The results show that the changing trend of marine fishing quantity of each factor amplification effect and additive effect,the objective existence of the phenomenon of overfishing,artificial multiplication shortage has become the main reason to reduce the amount of marine fishing,marine aquaculture and mariculture area affect the yield level of fishing on the ocean is larger,the realistic background in offshore fishery resources decline almost exhausted under the sea farming has a positive effect on recovery of marine fishery resources.Fifth,taking Liaoning Province as an example,combined with the input and output index value of 2000-2014,the multiple linear regression model was constructed.The results show that the influence factors analysis of Liaoning province marine fishing,not only confirms the conclusions of the PVAR model,but also reflects the Liaoning province marine catches change situation;for Liaoning Province,artificial multiplication need to be strengthened,the fishery population to reduce the labor force,resulting in motor fishing vessels against indiscriminate fishing the phenomenon is more serious in Liaoning Province,Liaoning Province,causing the decrease of marine fishing production;the reason of expenditure and change is not the amount of fishing.