China's Wind Power Industry Analysis Based On Technology Diffusion Model

In the past decades,China's fast economic development are heavily dependent on energy consumption.Its high carbon energy structure leads to lots of pollutions and seriously ecological environment issues.Renewable energy is considered as the most important effective means to contradict this phenomenon.Among different forms of renewable energy,wind power gained popularity in the priority policies of the government in recent years due to its matured technology.Compared with it,the priority policy for other forms of renewable energy are more controversial.According to China's wind power medium and long-term development plan by 2020,its wind power installed capacity aims to reach 200 GW.In addition,China also plans to set up eight wind power base before 2020,including eastern Inner Mongolia,Jilin,Gansu,Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia,Hebei,Jiangsu and Shandong area.But the region as well as the national wind power development as a result of the limitation of endogenous and exogenous factors still face different challenges.So in this article,we will use the technology diffusion model based on GBM to analysis and forecast,and eight wind power development in key areas of the nation's wind power technology diffusion model and its influencing factors.This paper not only can compare different wind area and the similarities and differences among the national wind power development mode,and will focus on analysis of exogenous factors affecting wind power technology diffusion.We will mainly consider the exogenous factors including preferential policies,grid restrictions,economic development,etc.In addition,we also use vector sensitivity analysis to explore and carbon emissions trading,price differences can lead to the development of the future of wind power cost.Empirical analysis of the national key provinces and found that: first,because of development stage in various areas and energy supply situation is different,preferential policies for different parts of the country and the influence of the wind power industry development difference obvious,even some policies will lead to wind power investment overheating,negative impact of wind power development.Second,the network has become the past few years,the development of wind power of the main factors in the future the incentive policy will gradually turn to power grid construction,has important significance to promote the development of wind power.Third,due to the uniqueness of each regional economic development and geographical environment,leading to regional power demand side can absorptive capacity has a certain difference,become an important factor limiting the development of wind power in the region.Fourth,wind vector and carbon emissions trading right price impact on the development of wind power cost,increase of wind power technology research and development investment,promote carbon emissions trading,to improve the developers investment enthusiasm play an important role of wind power.Fifth,from China's eight major wind power base of wind power development trend of technology diffusion,most of the region development trend is not optimistic,it is imperative to improve the wind power development environment.