Financial Risk Early Warning Management Research Based On The Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

With the rapid development of the automobile industry,more and more uncertain factors come in the process of production and operation,which makes the possibility of financial risk increasing.According to statistics,in C hinese the closure of enterprises,there are 47% main reasons is because of financial problems,and fail not because there is no profitability,but because of the lack of risk control ability,faced the risk of cash flow caused by the fracture.Therefore,for enterprises,especially the rapid development and great potential of the automotive industry,risk identification and prevention is very important.In this dissertation,The Great Wall Motor Company(hereinafter referred to as Great Wall Co)as an example,through the analysis of industry characteristics,production and operation of the company,financial data and other information extraction,financial risk assessment indicators,the financial early-warning index system has been established;the fuzzy evaluation method is constructed by combining the financial risk early-warning model of AHP(analytic hierarchy process,referred to as AHP)and the financial data of Great Wall Co in recent years;based on the financial risk early warning model was analyzed,through the analysis of Great Wall Co in recent years in the production and management of the financial risk,give targeted preventive measures.The main contents of this dissertation are: first,financial risk analysis and risk early warning concept,elaborated the related concept,financial risk and financial risk early warning from the concept,characteristics,classification,characteristics and other aspects of the concept of financial risk is discussed,the concept of financial risk early warning function,and the basic elements of the fuzzy evaluation method is discussed in this paper and analysis.Second,financial risk early warning index system is established,through the analysis of Great Wall Co financial situation,market share and relative market share marketing situation,financial indicators required for financial warning analysis were extracted,establishes the index system of financial risk assessment.Third,establish financial risk early-warning model,through financial risk early warning index system,financial risk early-warning model of Great Wall Co is established based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method by combining AHP and fuzzy evaluation method.Firstly,the hierarchical structure is constructed by using AHP method,construct two comparison judgment matrix,the weight coefficient of financial risk index system and calculation.Then using fuzzy evaluation method,establish t he membership functions to construct the membership matrix,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and two level fuzzy comprehensive evaluations to calculate the financial risk value.Fourth,analysis of the financial risk early warning model of financial risk early warning index system and early-warning model based on the financial data analysis of Great Wall Co from 2012 to 2016,from financial risk evaluation index value;based on the "2016 car whole car manufacturing enterprise performance evaluation standard" and other national industry standards,constructing early-warning index membership matrix,the financial risk of a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and calculation.Two level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate the risk of the financial condition of the Great Wall Co in 2015,to test the feasibility and rationality of the model.The risk early warning analysis on financial situation in 2016,get the risk assessment results.Fifth,the analysis results of financial risk early warning based on the extraction of total assets turnover,business utilization index,from the operational capability,quantitative analysis,analyzed the cause of formation of financial risk Great Wall Co profitability etc.from the face of profit,return on assets,return on net assets,etc.given the 2014-2016 three years of Great Wall Co financial risk formation;then,from the establishment of early warning system of financial risks of financial risk control,training of personnel security,assets operation efficiency,business strategy and other aspects of risk prevention and improvement measures are given.Sixth,The research conclusions are as follows: in 2016 the Great Wall Co's financial risk value is 79.4,belong to low risk range,for the normal operation of the enterprise.However,operating capacity and profitability There is a certain risk,operating profit margin,return on assets and a few indicators are not ideal.In order to avoid financial risk,should improve the corresponding system,accelerate the Total Assets Turnover,accelerate inventory management,improve the Operating Capacity;the implementation of the monitoring mechanism,strengthen cost management,adjust business strategy,improve profitability.Based on the analysis of the actual operating conditions of the Great Wall Co,the establishment of financial risk early warning system using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,is conducive to the Great Wall Co found that analysis and take corresponding measures to avoid business risks,for enterprise's sustained,stable development.At the same time,the financial risk early-warning model in this paper is to study the real financial.Based on the data of the Great Wall Co,the results can not only provide the model and method can be used directly for other companies in the automotive industry to carry out the early warning of financial risk management,also can be used for aircraft,ships and other transportation industry and other industries to carry out enterprise financial risk warning reference analys is model and method of use.