Research On The Prediction Of Tourist Flow Spatio-temporal Bayonet Based On WITNESS Simulation

In the era of mass tourism,tourist's crowded or stampede events have occurred frequently in many popular scenic spots of China,being a practical challenge of scenic manager.The concept of tourist flow spatio-temporal bayonet and its identification method make up the deficiency of the traditional tourist flow management method,which try to limit the size of visitors into a static environment capacity value,and provide a new idea for the active and proactive management.However,with the lack of effective way to predict the tourist's spatial and temporal distribution,it still stand at theoretical conception level.This paper abstracts the scenic environment into entrances and exits,paths and dwells,and decomposes the tourists behavior into tourists' arriving rules,moving rules and touring rules.Based on the theory of time geography and probabilistic time geography,and applying system simulation as research method,this paper established the simulation model of scenic area system based on probability with WITNESS simulation platform.It could be used to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of tourists in the scenic area and provide data source for identifying the tourist flow spatio-temporal bayonet.This paper also revises the method of identifying the tourist flow spatio-temporal bayonet by calculating the number of tourists and their staying time,and came up with tourist flow spatio-temporal density index.We conducted several simulation experiments with the Hong Kong Ocean Park as a case,and found that the tourist flow spatio-temporal bayonet of Hong Kong Ocean Park mainly concentrated in the polar adventure,the aqua city and the whiskers harbor the three attractions,and mostly concentrated after 12:00 noon,and that the distribution of the tourist flow spatio-temporal bayonet also changes with the increasing of tourist number,but there is no direct relationship between them.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to predict the tourist flow spatio-temporal bayonet,how to avoid it and how to manage it.This paper not only improved the theory of the tourist flow spatio-temporal bayonet,but also has practical value in regulating the tourist flow,avoiding them crowded,protecting the scenic resources and tourists' safety.etc.