Time-space Difference Analysis And Prediction Research Of County Economy Based On GIS

Unbalanced development between regional economy is an objective phenomenon on current country and region,the countries and the regions have adopted a series of measures to gradually reduce the gap between the economic.China's economy had jumped to the second place in the international rankings,but per capita is very low in the development,which is closely linked to our population.National development planning to built a well-off society in China in 2020,it is imperative to ensure regional balance of economic development.JiangXi province has played an important role in both historically and current development,the analysis of regional economic development in Jiangxi province and promote economic development to achieve well-off society in the country have great significance.This paper is selected respectively 8 research index from 80 county(county city)in JiangXi province and 11 prefecture-level city integrated index for research analysis,under the theory guide of geographical economic development,study the feature of differences,agglomeration and correlation of County domain economic of development in all province,reveals out all County growth development status in province,and analyse factors that formed differences,provides reference and theory in the process of achieving national target and establish economic long term target.research content and innovation of this paper as follows:First,analyse per capita of GDP in each county using traditional method of qualitative and quantitative,first compared per capita GDP of JiangXi province with per capita GDP of nation,using traditional weighted coefficient index and concentrated index,analysis County domain economic,compared two index and obtained that development imbalance of JiangXi province County domain economic,the economic development between 1995 and 2007,appeared extremely gap between imbalance geographical places,sinces 2007 years,the gap begans reduced gradually and grows stabled in trend.Even though Jiangxi province have got rapid economic growth in recent years,but the gap are increasing when compared with the nation,also is in the backward state.Second,using spatial statistical analysis methods to study and evaluate the economic of each county and city in whole province in comprehensive indicators respectively.this Paper using the ArcGIS software,SPSS software,Geoda software to research,using Global Spatial autocorrelation and local Spatial autocorrelation to analysis each County economy.For the Global Spatial autocorrelation,Moran index result shows strong spatial connection and relevance,illustrate the development of County economy has significant global Spatial autocorrelation,it is not randomly distributed,revealed some connection exists between similarity values.in the analysis of Local Spatial autocorrelation,selected in 1996,2004 and 2012 three time sections for local analysis,according to Moran,and LISA gathered the final outcome,shows that 90% County of JiangXi province is concentrated in the first or third quadrant,present positive Spatial autocorrelation,Illustrates the province's strong economic characteristics of agglomeration,spatial heterogeneity was weaker.with a comprehensive index analysis for municipal research unit,as can be seen the score in Nanchang,Jiujiang,Xinyu areas are relatively high,economies are more developed comapared to other districts,the economic of Ganzhou and Ji ' an is backward than Northern Jiangxi province,shows that the development between countys of Jiangxi province is always in the imbalance state,the phenomenon of North stronger than South is very obvious.Third,forecast the per capita GDP of the next two years for each County of Jiangxi province based on the combined neural network model,Comprehensive analysis of the current economic situation,verify the contrast the grey model and combinated neural network model,finally select the combined neural network model that got highest accuracy,forecasts the economic growth.analysis the per capita GDP in the next two years that forecasted based on the spatial statistical analysis methods,the results of analysis is the County economic development in Jiangxi province trending to developing balanced,the gap is gradually narrowing.This changes just meet a series of policies that Government developed,GanNan Prefecture economics is fast growing,after the State of ?support Gannan,original central Soviet revitalization development of several views? is landing and implemented,economic of Gan Nan has more fast development changes,in the favourable Center of Nanchang as the capital city,independently formed a economic ties,led the growth of other county arounded,the idea of "integration of NanChang and JiuJiang" that Government plans to implement,had led the fast development of county economic that around JiuJiang area.Four,for the analysis of the economic diversity factors of counties in the province,mainly analyzed between the natural prerequisite for decision,location differences,regional policy and industrial structure.Combining the characteristics of existing regional economic development and some bottlenecks,and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions,are more conducive to the balanced development of the economy,suggest reference for Jiangxi provincial government constitute economic development strategy.This papers is in the base of traditional regional economic analysis theory,further used space statistics analysis method to study the layout and changes of County domain economic,and analysis the current situation,proposed a forecast on County domain economic of future two years based on the combination neural network model,further validation space distribution status for the forecast results,for the formed differences effect factors analysis,proposed countermeasures and thought for future economic balance of development,provides reference for Jiangxi provincial government to plans long term strategy and measures.