A Study On Risk Transmission And Diffusion Of Technological Innovation Based On Computational Experiment

Due to the impact of global financial crisis in 2008,China's economic growth rate has been slowing down and economic recession has been getting worse.Innovation-drivean has become an effective way for China to cope with the new situation of economic,whose two remarkable characters are high risk and high income.The high economic benefit which promotes enterprises to carry out technological innovation and absorb new technologies from external is the internal driving force of the diffusion of technological innovation,which is the way to realize the economic growth and the uncertain factors in technologies innovation make it have a characteristics of high risk.With wide spread of the risk lruking in technology innovation in the society,it will affect the normal operation of the whole market and sustainable development of economic.So,it is of theoretical and practical significance to deeply understand the transmission and diffusion of technological innovation risk.On the base of summarizing relevant research literatures,the author summarizes the influencing factors,characteristics and modes of technological innovation diffusion.Based on complex network theory,diffusion theory and individual decision theory,it puts forward a two-stage transmission model of technological innovation risk,which consists of the diffusions of technological innovation and its risk.In this study,Multi-agent modeling is chosen to build a computational model for the process of transmission and diffusion of technological innovation risk by using Anylogic software.Through carrying out 4 groups of simulation experiments,the influence mechanism of types and degree of local convergence of technological innovation,heterogeneity of enterprises and government intervention policy are studies on the transmission and diffusion of technological innovation risk.Based on analysis and summarizing of the experimental results,the author thinks that the structure of local cooperation network is the key factor that affects the diffusion of technological innovation risk.While types,degree of local convergence of technological innovation and heterogeneity of enterprises influence the transmission and diffusion process of the risk by affecting the structure and overlay range of local cooperation network and the propagation speed of the risk in it.Transmission of external risk and negative network externality of technological innovation are directly and indirectly affected by the government intervention policy,which influence the transmission and diffusion of the risk.