| In recent years,ecological problems have become more prominent,ecological protection has been more and more attention,to explore sustainable development has become the consensus of mankind.In 2015,the United Nations issued the "2030 sustainable development goals",proposed to improve the global energy efficiency improvement rate,and a substantial increase in renewable energy in the global energy portfolio share,to ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns.The 18 th CPC National Congress stressed that the ecological civilization construction was assimilated into economic construction,political construction,cultural construction,social construction in all aspects and the whole process,formatting the industrial structure of resource conservation and environmental protection,to achieve sustainable development of the Chinese nation.The ecological footprint analysis proposed by Canadian eco-economists Rees and Wackernagel provides a way to quantitatively analyze the sustainability of regional economic development.This approach measures the sustainable development of the region's economy by estimating the area of productive land consumed by the region's natural resources and the wastes required for emissions and comparing it with the area of productive land that can be provided in the region.This paper takes Tianjin as the research object,innovatively combines the theory of industrial structure evolution with ecological footprint theory to study the ecological effect of industrial structure evolution.Through the comparative analysis and econometric analysis,the trend of ecological footprint changes and the relationship between the evolution of industrial structure and ecological footprint in the process of industrial structure evolution were studied.Firstly,using the ecological footprint analysis method,estimate the per capita ecological footprint,the per capita ecological carrying capacity,the per capita ecological deficit level and the ecological occupation intensity of Tianjin from the year 1995 to 2015.The results show that:(1)From 1995 to 2015,the per capita ecological footprint of Tianjin increased by 52.1%,and the per capita ecological carrying capacity decreased by 30%.(2)From 1995 to 2015,Tianjin has been in a state of ecological deficit,and the deficit level has increased by 67% in 21 years.(3)The proportion of Tianjin's energy footprint accounts for about 78% of the ecological footprint,and the ecological supply of cultivated land and construction land accounts for about 95% of the total ecological supply.(4)From 1995 to 2015,the ecological occupation intensity of Tianjin decreased by 79.9%.Secondly,we analyze the relationship between industrial structure and ecological footprint of Tianjin.The results show that:(1)In short term,it presents "two-one-three" pattern of the per capita ecological footprint of the three industries,but it presents "two-three-one" pattern in the long term.And the per capita ecological footprint of the Secondary Industry accounts for more than half(about 52%).(2)The change of the optimization of industrial structure and the per capita ecological footprint are inversely,indicating that raising the economic scale and the economic proportion of the Secondary Industry and the Tertiary Industry,especially the Tertiary Industry can effectively reduce the per capita ecological footprint.Then,using VEC model and impulse response function,this paper analyzes the relationship between industrial structure and ecological footprint in Tianjin.The results show that the impact of the output of different industry on the per capita ecological footprint of Tianjin is different: in the long run,the output value of the primary industry has a positive effect on the ecological footprint.The output value of the secondary industry also has a positive effect on the ecological footprint,but the degree of influence is much higher than that of the primary industry.The output value of the tertiary industry has a negative impact on the ecological footprint,and the degree of influence is greater than that of the primary industry,but less than that of the secondary industry,which indicate that the development of the tertiary industry is conducive to reducing the per capita ecological footprint of Tianjin,which is consistent with the conclusions of the fifth chapter.Finally,according to the analysis results of Chapter 4,Chapter 5 and Chapter 6,the conclusion of the ecological effect of the evolution of industrial structure is summarized,and the policy suggestions are put forward: improving the development concept;adjusting the industrial structure;adjusting the consumption of resources Structure and strengthen regional cooperation. |
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