The Effects Of Provincial Fiscal Policy On The Adjustment Of Industrial Structure

In 2010,China exceeded japan becoming the second largest GDP gross country.High-speed economic growth at the same time also brought a series of developing issues,for instance: energy and resources consumption,the increasing gap between rich and poor,excessive production capacity and so on.Beginning in 2012 our country's economy speeding entered a new stage called "China's New Normal".On January 20,2014,the national bureau of statistics data showed that the tertiary industry which was more than the second industry was up to 46.1% of the total value added,making a historic breakthrough in industrial restructuring.Larging economic aggregate,slowing economic growth,growing proportion of the third industry promotion,was releasing the signal that the economy developing target has changed from scale expansion to structural optimization.Adapting to the new way of economic development,the industrial structure as an important part of economic structure had to upgrade.This paper selected the data among 30 provinces from 2007 to 2011 in China,quantitating the industrial structure as the explained variables by calculating the Thayer index and similarity coefficient to the standard structure,choosing the fiscal policies as the explanatory variables to research the governmental macroeconomic regulation and control.The research strategy is beginning with establishing a dynamic panel data model(DPD)to catch the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure and find out the effect of fiscal policies.Secondly,by analyzing the moran index find that industrial structure exists spatial clustering phenomenon,so adding the space factor into the panel data model,reconstructing the space panel data.Judging from the model index,SDM is the suitable model and then by using softwares acquire the model estimation results.The results are as follws: rationality and optimization of industrial structure have the characteristics of dynamic adjustment.The government tax acted a positive factor to the rationality and optimization of industrial structure for itself and the nearby area,fiscal spending is benefit for its rationality of industrial structure,however it is negative to the nearby area.To other impact factor,the R&D and the quality of the labor force can promote the optimization of industrial structure while the quality of the labor force has adverse effect to the surrounding area's optimization of industrial structure.