Research On The Fluctuation Of Grain Output In Jiangsu Province

Jiangsu is one of China's major grain producing provinces,the largest rice-producing provinces in the South,and high quality of weak gluten wheat production area,its stable increase of grain output in Jiangsu Province is important not only to the region but to the whole country.Paper to Jiangsu province for research object,using empirical mode deconstruction(EMD)on its 1978-2015 years of food production data for decomposition,get different time scale of fluctuations items and trend items,through on fluctuations items of analysis more full of grasp Jiangsu Province food production fluctuations of form and structure features,attempts to summary its fluctuations law,and further study the time scale fluctuations of effect factors,For the prediction of grain output in Jiangsu Province,Jiangsu Province,to predict the total grain output for reference.This paper draws the following conclusions:(1)the cyclical fluctuation of grain output in Jiangsu Province,has an obvious feature,but is not the same each cycle factors that play a leading role.(2)considering the structural characteristics of the fluctuation of grain output in Jiangsu Province,found that both the fluctuation of rice,wheat yields are southern,Central and northern Jiangsu three regional fluctuations in their food production,has a pronounced cyclical,and consistent with the Division of the province's grain output cycle.Crops,if current trends of rice production,rice production has increased mutation rate per 1%,grain output variability would grow by about 0.6 of a percentage point in wheat production has increased mutation rate per 1%,grain output variability would grow by about 0.3 percentage points.Regional level,fluctuations in grain output in the province is the largest in northern Jiangsu,should keep the current percentage of trend output in northern Jiangsu Province,its grain production has increased mutation rate per 1%,the variation of grain yield in the province will grow by about 0.6 percentage points.(3)the fluctuation of grain output in Jiangsu province can be divided into 3-year and 15-year cycles,and 15-year cycle.Fluctuation of grain yield per unit area is divided into 3 years,6 years,and 15-year cycles,and 15 year cycle mainly grain sowing is divided into 4-year and 8-year cycle,and the 8-year cycle.Grain yield 3 year cycle fluctuations were mainly caused by meteorological disasters,and 15 year quasi-periodic fluctuations of meteorological disasters and the grain purchase price,adjusted for consumer price indices(2001 year production prices for agricultural products)influence,but price lag 2 years.Area 8-year cycle is also adjusted for consumer price index influence of grain purchase prices,but its impact to lag 3 years.In addition,whether it is the province's grain yield fluctuation or a cyclical output fluctuations has significant policy implications,characterized by several troughs,namely 1978 years,1992 and 2003 years,corresponds with the significant adjustment of our agricultural policy.Finally,according to the analysis presented in this paper's policy recommendations:(1)should pay attention to wheat yield fluctuation effect on the fluctuation of grain output in Jiangsu Province,and will actively take measures to stabilize its production,such as research and development of high yield and high resistance of wheat varieties and increase the resilience of agricultural infrastructure construction,promoting land circulation,reduction of farmland.(2)efforts to increase financial support for agricultural development in North Jiangsu,especially support to enhance the resilience of infrastructure construction and research projects,improvement of paddy field,improving irrigation and so on.(3)stable prices and a stable policy environment is expected to stabilize grain production and reduced volatility is important.Especially food prices on both yields and the sown areas under the influence of a certain degree of delay,pay attention to the long-term effects of price policies.