Movement Of Natural Persons Affect China's Exports And Imports

The movement of natural persons is one of the four ways through which services can be supplied internationally under the GATS(General Agreement on Trade in Services).In 2001,it was incorporated into the agenda of Doha Round negotiations.With the continuous development of economic globalization and the constant growth of international trade and investment,the scale of movement of natural persons in the world began to increase gradually,followed by the increasing attention to the movement of natural persons paid by each country.The study of the movement of natural persons becomes a new approach to seek trade growth in various countries,and scholars hold the opinion that the movement of natural persons will play a positive role in the development process of trade in goods and services,so does the world economy.As a large country with a population of 1.3 billion,China characterizes the comparative advantage in the international labor market and actively promotes the movement of natural persons in the world.It is a significant part of the motive power of China's foreign trade,the improvement of the populace's cultivation,and the enhancement of science&technology level for the whole country.Therefore,in the circumstance of weak growth of foreign trade,it is necessary and sufficient to study how the movement of natural persons impacts import and export in China,thus optimize the trade structure of China,and dig new growth points for China's foreign trade.Consequently,makes effective proposals to China's foreign trade.This paper firstly sorts out and analyses the domestic and abroad literature on the movement of natural persons,explains the movement of natural persons from three aspects:neoclassical economics,new immigrant economics and labor market segmentation theory.Then demonstrates the mechanism of the movement of natural persons to Chinat's import and export trade.Conclusion is that the movement of natural persons can influence the import and export trade through four aspects:information effect,preference effect,credibility effect and technical effect,which will bring new technology and new trade opportunities and help to strengthen bilateral Information exchange,break Information asymmetry barriers,hence reduce the risk of default and enhance trade.Moreover,in this paper,the current situation of the movement of natural persons in China is analyzed from four aspects:the scale of natural person movement,the flow structure,the flow system and the flow barrier.Finally,by constructing the extended gravity model of trade,based on the panel data of China and 50 trading partner countries(regions)from 2011 to 2015,using stochastic effect model to carry out regression analysis,this paper verifies the influence of the movement of natural persons on China's import and export trade.The author draws the following conclusions and puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions.The empirical results show that the movement of natural persons has both a positive effect on China's import trade and export trade,and the effect on the promotion of import trade is slightly larger than that of export trade,but there is still a gap with the United States.The promotion is greater in the United States due to the movement of natural people per the import and export trade.It indicates that China's natural person flow system is still not perfect.Compared with the United States or other developed countries,China is facing more stringent natural person flow barriers.Moreover,the flowing out natural persons of China is creating a lower per capita GDP than other developed countries' natural persons.