| Recent years,trade in services is an important driving force for economic growth,which is the only way to realize trade power;to a certain stage,economic development should face transformation and upgrading.Industrial transformation and upgrading,that is,industrial structure optimization,is more conducive to economic and social development direction.In the context of global economic integration and liberalization of trade in services which has developed rapidly and surpassed the secondary industry for the first time in 2013,so it is necessary to accelerate the development of trade in services to promote China's industrial transformation and upgrading of the important task.This paper first takes the impact of trade in services on industrial transformation and upgrading as the main research object,the former part first reviews the relevant theories of service trade and industrial transformation and upgrading;analyzes and summarizes the theoretical mechanism of the impact of service trade on industrial transformation and upgrading from the perspective of the influence on service,manufacturing industry,technology spillover effect and human capital,which provides a basic framework for the subsequent empirical research.On this basis,it puts forward the technical complexity of service trade to reflect the technical content of trade in services,and discusses the influence of China's service trade on industrial transformation and upgrading.the conclusion is that the development of trade in services will make the proportion of the primary industry decline,so that the proportion of the secondary industry and tertiary industry increased.Meanwhile,it puts forward the index of service trade based on the technical complexity of service trade.On this basis,the linear regression model is used to measure the influence of China's service trade on industrial transformation and upgrading.The empirical results show that the technological content of trade in all sectors and sub-sectors has a significant effect on the upgrading and upgrading of China's industrial industries.However,the technological content of new trade in services is more significant than that of traditional service sector.Direct investment,government expenditure on the industrial transformation and upgrading also has a significant positive correlation,but the R & D investment on the industrial transformation and upgrading did not significantly promote the role,and even had a negative effect.And then through thecointegration theory and Granger causality test and other methods of China's trade in services and industrial transformation and upgrading between the two co-integration analysis,empirical analysis of China's trade in services and industrial transformation and upgrading between the existence of long-term positive relationship in conclusion,based on the industrial transformation and upgrading for the development of trade in services proposed sustainable development of the relevant policies to change the mode of economic growth,hoping to provide an effective theoretical reference for the healthy and rapid development of China's service trade.The main innovation of this paper is that,firstly,in the perspective of research,this paper puts forward the technical complexity of service trade as a measure of the technical content of trade in services,and analyzes the technological content of trade in industry and sub-sector The second is the combination of theoretical and empirical methods,through the construction of VAR-VEC model of China's trade in services and industrial transformation and upgrading of the Association of China's trade in services and industrial transformation and upgrading of the promotion of industrial transformation and promotion of the role of more than the traditional service sector trade technology content is more significant;The whole analysis shows that there is a long-term stable relationship between China's service trade and industrial transformation and upgrading. |
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