Research On Relationship Between Econimic Cycle Fluctuation And Coal Supply And Demand Based On Co-integration Theory

Since the reform and opening up, Chinese economy has the sustained and high speed development. But the economic operation is always accompanied by economic fluctuations in the meantime. Energy plays an important role in the survival and development of human society. The long-term stability of energy supply is an important guarantee for social stability and economic development. At the same time,the development of economy is accompanied by the consumption of energy. So there is a correlation between energy and economy. China is the largest developing country in the world and the main energy producer and consumer. For a long time, coal in the structure of China's primary energy production and consumption account for more than 2/3.So there is also a correlation between coal supply and demand and economy development.In this paper, co integration theory and method are used to study the relationship between economic cycle fluctuation and coal supply and demand. Firstly, the author analyzes the theory of economic cycle and co integration which providing theoretical basis and guidance for the research. Secondly, the author analyzes the relationship between coal production and economic development by using the elastic coefficient of coal production. Meanwhile,the author also analyzes the relationship between coal consumption and economic development by using the elastic coefficient and the intensity of coal consumption. All these analyzes based on the present situation of coal supply and demand. According to the study,the author puts forward the research on the application of the economic cycle fluctuation to the coal supply and demand.Thirdly, the H-P filter method is used to divide the economic cycle and coal supply and demand in order to analyze the correlation between economic cycle fluctuation and coal supply and demand fluctuation. It is concluded that the coal production, coal consumption and economic cycle influence each other are obtained. At last, the author uses Granger causality test, error correction model, impulse response and variance decomposition method to make a further analysis on the co-integration relationship,the long-run equilibrium relation, modified relation and dynamic relationship betweenthe economic fluctuation and the coal supply and demand which are based on the above theoretical research and the panel data from 1990 to 2014,with the aid of econometric analysis software Eviews. It is concluded that the coal supply and demand can be adjusted to adapt to the fluctuation of the economic cycle, so as to achieve the goal of the coordinated development of the coal industry and the national economy.