Bootstrap Percolation On The Regional Trading Network Of The Arctic Routes Economic Circle

The Arctic Route,whose opening is just around the corner,connects Europe,North America, and Northeast Asia, the three most active areas of economic trading, so that the transportation distance among the three is greatly reduced,which is a very special geographical advantage. It can become not only a new ocean traffic artery, but also a link to the formation of the Arctic Route economic circle with East Asia, North America, and Europe as the main bodies, and thus has a profound impact on the world economy and trading pattern.This paper incorporated the analytic method of complex network theory, and proposed a bootstrap percolation model based on the trading network of the Arctic Route economic circle. Taking Northeast Route as the primary research object,a weighted bifurcation network composed of two parts of nodes is established. Through analysis of indicators of centrality, proportion of initial active nodes, as well as thresholds and phase transitions, the structure and evolution process of the trading network of the Arctic Route economic circle are investigated, furthermore the theoretical trading network upon full opening of the Arctic Route is concluded. Finally,sensitivity analysis was conducted on proportion of initial active nodes and thresholds,which explained some basic phenomena of the trading network and its practical significance. It further confirmed the value and rationality of the research, and its usefulness in assisting with the development of national trading policy.The results show that with its full opening, the key elements of the world ocean shipping network will gradually or even suddenly change under the influence of the Arctic Route. Our country is located right in the extension line of the Arctic Route, its impact on us would be phenomenal. Based on this fact, it’s becoming urgent to seek options of our Arctic Strategy. We may choose "actively strive for full participation" as our Arctic strategy, which includes: (1) Actively build the Arctic shipping center,improve the ATN trading system, support the development of related enterprises, and actively establish the ecosphere of the Arctic Route economic environment; (2)appropriately adjust the industrial layout, and organize a market-oriented and coordinated development of the northern ports that provides comprehensive infrastructure support to ATN; (3) strengthen current bilateral cooperation with potential trading partners (such as Finland, Sweden),tightly integrate "the Belt and Road"initiative, and pave the way for building "Arctic Route economic circle strategy" in the future.The opening of the Arctic Route will have a significant impact on China, who is a participating country in the Arctic Route economic trading. Arctic Route can be combined with China’s "The Belt and Road" initiative to form a transportation network with ocean-land linkage, and promote the balanced development within China. Arctic Route can also strengthen and facilitate communications between China and Europe,North America and other regions. In short, the Arctic Route will bring an opportunity to China, we shall take full account of its impact while formulating our economic development plan, and adopt corresponding economic tactics in timely fashion.