China's Grain Price Fluctuation Mechanism Under The Background Of Globalization And The Study Of Early Warning Mechanism

Grain price is the most important issue in food security.The issue of grain price was not a simple technical issue, but an institutional issue which was decided by the playing among multi-subject behavior.Based on the previou studies, this paper focused on the fluctuation and early warning mechanism of Chinese grain price, with the perspective of globalization.Based on the long-term sample.this paper implied that international grain price showed cyclical fluctuation and structural mechanism,that is,before2000years,the supply and demand were key factors to determine grain price,but after2000years,these were changed to energy and monetary,which contributed98percent.With the "trinity" attributes of grain to be strengthened,the influence of international grain price to that of domestic varietied among different grain species,of which soybean was subject to the most sensitive specie and got the shortest lag.The conducting mechanism of international grain price to that of domestic had converted to two-step ways:firstly,relied on the trade and exchange rate ways,the fluctuation of international grain price passed to the changes of domestic soybean price;Secondly,based on the substitution effect and other information induced ways,the fluctuation of domestic soybean price would pass to the changes of other species and the whole grain price.In all,the supply and demand were the main determination of domestic grain price and the influence of international grain price became stronger.Meanwhile,the fluctuation of grain price in food sales areas was the source of the whole price.So this paper built up a framework of "Price—Subject—Conduct"(PSC).This implied that the grain price was determined by the supply, demand and government.The games among them decided the grain price.The utilities goals and economic environment were the key factors to determine behavior.With this PSC framework,this paper made a detail statement of evolution of domestic grain price and volatility of regional grain price.Based on such conclusions,this paper built up the early warning mechanism of grain price.By the way of information collection,information process and information conducting,this paper implied the importance of soybean species and Guangdong province. In a word,the early warning mechanism was a system,which was realised by the synergies of multi-sectors.