Pricing And Ordering Decisions Based On Demand Forecast Updating And Backlogging

Procurement is one of the key issues in supply chain management. With the development of technology and economy, demand of consumer is increasingly diversified;The contradiction between supply and demand is becoming more and more prominent. In order to deal with this problem, the enterprise uses second order model that based on the demand information update to purchase products. In order to solve the purchasing decision problem in the second order model, few scholars consider the decision of ordering time.Ordering time in practice is often an important decision of the retailer, and the manufacturer's wholesale price will change over time. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the issues of the second order of purchasing time decision under that wholesale price is affected by time.In this paper, the secondary supply chain consisting of a single producer and a single retailer is set as the research object, based on four different scenarios, the manufacturer-led Stackelberg game model with time decision variables and the two-tier planning model of the retailer's order decision are established. The solution gives the manufacturer the time-related optimal wholesale price and the retailer's optimal order decision. In additional, it gives the decision whether the retailer performs the second order and the optimal second order time in the case of demand forecast updating.Finally, the results show that: (1)Under the given demand distribution, the retailer's first order quantity under the demand forecast updating is always lower than the order quantity that with no-demand update, and the price discount offered by the manufacturer is generally lower; (2) The retailer's order quantity under the condition of the supply of the shortage is always lower than the order quantity without shortage supply, and the price discount offered by the manufacturer is always higher. At the same time, with the increase in the delayed supply rate of shortages, the retailer's order will be reduced, the second order time of the retailer will advance, and the manufacturer's price discount will increase; (3)Demand forecast updating can effectively improve the expected profits of the enterprises in the supply chain, and achieve Pareto improvement of the supply chain's revenue. Besides,supply of shortage at the end of sales season can further improve the operational performance of the supply chain.