Comprehensive Measurement And Empirical Study Of Regional Financial Risk

Regional financial stability is the foundation of macro financial stability.The cumulative regional financial risk will cause systemic financial risk and financial crisis,damage the national economy and social stability,so our country takes the prevention of regional systemic financial risk as an important task of financial work.The construction of regional financial risk integrated measurement system is the premise to guard against the regional financial risk and hold the bottom line of regional financial risk.It has great significance for the realization of regional economic and financial stability,the construction of financial security areas and the promotion of regional economic and social sustainable development.This thesis reviews the related theory of regional financial risk,summed up the regional financial risk origin,pathway and risk types,constructed an integrated measurement system of regional financial risk,and empirical analysis of the financial situation of the 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China,summarized the problems and Countermeasures of regional the financial risks of regional financial development in China.In the selection of indicators,this thesis uses Delphi method to set up regional financial risk integrated measurement system covering macro economic factors,regional economic factors,regional financial factors of 3subsystems,9 sub modules,43 monitoring indicators.In determining the index critical value and warning interval,on the basis of the provisions of the Basel protocol,relevant international standards,the CBRC,CSRC and CIRC and so on,combined with historical development of China's economy,the economic and financial situation,determine the scientific and consistent with China's national conditions and the critical value of early warning interval.In the calculation of the index weight,this thesis used AHP and entropy method to calculate the subjective weights and objective weights of indicators,and realized the calculation of the indexes weights,finally concluded that the comprehensive measure of regional financial risk.In the empirical analysis of 31 provinces and autonomous regions,the article uses the regional financial risk integrated measurement system to calculate the financial risk level of 31 provinces and autonomous regions.Based on the empirical analysis of the level of financial risk in 31 provinces andautonomous regions of china,this thesis found that the cause of regional financial risks mainly have regional economic factors,the three indicators of banking industry(the provision coverage,maximum ten customer loan ratio,core debt dependency)and the two indicators of special effects(private investment / total investment,house price growth rate / GDP growth rate),the regional financial stability in China facing the main difference of regional economic factors,lack of normalization of early warning mechanism,there are still some deficiencies in the regional financial system innovation,the regional ecological environment is not perfect,common and characteristics,five problems.In view of the existing problems,this thesis still put forward 7 suggestions to resolve regional financial risks.