The Impact Of Real Estate Market On New Urbanization Process

With the concept of "new urbanization" has proposed by Chinese government in 2014,there's a keyword called "human-oriented". A large number of people moved into city from countryside, and industrial structure will keeping upgraded, which also brought new vitality and higher requirements for the real estate market. On the other hand, due to the rapid development of the real estate market over the past 10 years, real estate industry has gradually become a mainstay industry to promote the development of. the national economy and also an important factor influence on urbanization.XinJiang Province as an important part of the Silk Road Economic Belt, its urbanization related to development of economy and social stability. But due to the limits of geographical conditions and social environment, whether the level of urbanization or real estate market,XinJiang lags behind the national average level in both way. So based on the research of domestic and foreign scholars, this paper takes XinJiang province as the research object,through arrangement on relevant theories of urbanization, proves the influencing factors and interactive relationship between the real estate market and urbanization from qualitative and quantitative aspects. Therefore,this paper has a certain reference value for the study of the coordinated development between real estate product market and urbanization. The main work contents are as follows:(1) Analyses the present situation of urbanization in XinJiang from spatial distribution,national policy and the contribution of tertiary industries to GDP. And use the single factor evaluation to analyses the trend of population urbanization in XinJiang since the reform and opening up. Then, based on these influencing factors, established a set of comprehensive index system for evaluating the level of urbanization, calculate three principal components including population, industrial structure and potential power with the principal component method, and obtained the comprehensive urbanization level of XinJiang since 2001 at last.(2) This paper analyses the present situation of XinJiang real estate market by collecting relevant data from statistical yearbook, and XinJiang is still in the stage that the dependence of economic development on real estate industry is increasing, the supply and demand structure of commercial housing is basically balanced, but showing a shortage of supply in general, the housing price to income ratio is lower than the national average, but within a reasonable range.(3) Using the Granger causality test to check out the causal relationship between urbanization level and real estate market in XinJiang. The result shows that urbanization level has a two-way causal relationship with real estate investment, one-way causal relationship with urban disposable income and there's no relationship with housing price, and the specific reason are analyzed combined with actual situation.(4) By using the method of path analysis, the main influencing factors of real estate market that act on urbanization in XinJiang are calculated and analyzed. The empirical results shows that the real estate investment is the main factor to promote the process the urbanization,the greenfield and reconstruct investment both played a positive role as well, but the former factor is more influential, but the real estate sales has hindered the development of urbanization. Finally, according to the calculation results, this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the coordinated development between Real estate market and urbanization in XinJiang.