Construction And Application Of Coupling Process Model Of Agricultural Industry-resource System

The implementation of the project of returning farmland to forests in hilly area of the Loess Plateau?grass?has remarkable results,it has improved the ecological environment effectively.However,the consistency of agricultural industry and resources is relatively weak,forest resources are over plus,the development of agricultural industry is not based on the effective utilization of agricultural resources,and the developments of the system of agricultural industry and agricultural resources are in the opposite situation.In order to solve the contradiction,balance agricultural industry and agricultural resources system,the agricultural industry and resources should be coupled,and the key is to find out the evolution laws of agricultural industry-resource system.We analysis the system chain network structure based on the reality that the couple between agricultural industry and resources system is not good.Coupling process model was used to elucidate the agricultural industry and agricultural resources system by quantitative determination.In order to determine the coupling situation of the agricultural industry-resource system,the development in different situation was analyzed to make sure the reasonable utilization of resources and to accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure.Empirical Analysis in watershed of the typical hilly area of the Loess Plateau-Xiannangou watershed was done.The main results are as follows:1.The variation process of the agricultural industry-resource system' chain network structure in Loess Hilly region can be divided into four stages:?.agricultural resources system restoration and structure adjustment stage,?.agricultural industry system?structure?adaptation phase,?.agricultural industry-resource system local counter phase,IV.agricultural industry-resource system optimized coupling phase.The system has gone through the stage ??1999-2003?,stage ??2004-2010?and stage ??2011-?since the implementation of the project,,and it is now in phase ?.The agricultural industry system gradually adjusted its structure and the economic benefit increased year by year in the process of the agricultural resources system reconstruction,but the agricultural industry system did not reach the state of coordinated development with the agricultural resource system.The forest resource is rich but did not get a reasonable and effective use at present,so we need to further optimize the agricultural industry-resource system to promote the structure of the coupling system and regional sustainable development.At the same time,it can also be drawn that agricultural industry-resource system chain network structure can be characterized by environmental resources,agricultural resources,agricultural industrialization and economic table.2.Established the couple process model of agricultural industry-resource system in Xiannangou watershed.With the development of agricultural industry-resource system in Loess Hilly region,we established and analyzed a couple process model referred the agricultural ecological-economic couple process model.The basic model are dar?t?/dt=k₁×ar?t?+k₂×ai?t?and dai?t?/dt=k₃×ar?t?+k₄×ai?t?.The extended model are dar?t?/dt=k₁×?1+e1?×ar?t?+k₂×ai?t?dai?t?/dt=k₃×ar?t?+k₄×?1+e2?×ai?t?,???,and???is the gross of the agricultural resource system and ai?t?is the gross of the agricultural industry system;dar?t?/dt is the external force's evolution speed in t of the agricultural resource system and dai?t?/dt is the external force's evolution speed in t of the agricultural industry system;k₁,k₂,k₃ and k₄ are influence factors;e1 is the adjustment coefficient of the agricultural resource system and e2 is the adjustment coefficient of the agricultural industry system;xi?i=1,2,,,m?is the quantity of the agricultural resource system;pi and qj are weight;??pixi?is the increment of the resource system by external force and ??qiyi?is the increment of the industry system by external force)3.Illuminated parameter's?k₁,k₂,k₃,k₄?changing process and their ecological-economic significance in the couple process model.When k>0,the agricultural industry-resource system play a driving role in system evolution speed and vice versa,when k₁>0,k₂>0,the development of agricultural industry and agricultural resource all play a driving role in the agricultural industry-resource system's evolution speed;when k₁>0,k₂<0,the agricultural resource has growing space,no matter in agricultural resource environment and evolution;when k₁<0,the space of the development of agricultural resource is max and the agricultural resource quantity is in a stable value.For the agricultural industry-resource system's development,the agricultural industry's development plays a driving role in the agricultural industry system's evolution when k₄>0 and vice versa.When k₄>0,k₃>0,the development and utilization of agricultural resource rely on the development of agricultural industry.When k₄>0,k₃<0,the agricultural resource can't support the agricultural industry well,the development direction and scale of the agricultural industry system need more adjustment.4.Rely on the couple process model of the agricultural industry-resource system,we anticipated two possible development path of Xiannangou watershed's agricultural industry-resource system's coupling relationship.?1?Consider carbon sink industry:when we put carbon sink industry into the agricultural industry-resource system,parameter e2 begin positive,increased the influence that the development of agricultural industry to the evolution of agricultural industry system and the evolution speed of the agricultural resource system increased 2.56 times.?2?Built a new breeding method which include carbon sink,rotational grazing and confinedness:parameter e2 begin positive and the changed value is bigger,increased the influence that the development of agricultural industry to the evolution speed of the agricultural industry system,and the evolution speed of resource system increased 4.66 times.5.Taking Xiannangou watershed as a case of empirical results show that:the implementation process and the plan of Grain for Green Project need to be optimized according to the actual situation in Loess Hilly region,and the development of carbon industry need to be promoted to improve the reasonable and efficient utilization of agricultural resources and to accelerate industrial upgrading,so as to realize the benign coupling of the agricultural industry resources system.