Research On Energy Products' Import Structure Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Yangtze River Economic Belt

As the driving force of a country's or region's economic and social,energy plays a decisive role in the modernization drive.Yangtze River Economic Belt is the strategy of China's new round of reform and opening up,along the Yangtze River Economic Belt,there are China's five major steel base,the seven major oil refineries and Shanghai,Nanjing,Yizheng and other places a number of petrochemical base,it is the high energy consumption area of China,but this region is the area where is lack of energy in our country.With the continuous development of this area's economy,the contradiction between energy and economic continue to intensify,the structural drawbacks of energy imports gradually appear,further contradiction between energy supply and demand,energy-driven economic growth mode makes the environmental problems highlighted.Harmonization of economic,energy and environmental relations has become a top priority of this region.This paper is based on the analysis of the current situation of the import of energy products in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,including the analysis of overall size of energy imports in this region,the product structure and evolution of imported products,the import origin and evolution of imported products,trying to study the problem of the structure of energy imports in this region.In addition,by studying the influencing factors of regional energy import in the Yangtze Economic Belt,the mechanism and internal causes of energy demand and import change in the region are analyzed.Finally,the supply and demand of the region's major energy supply forecast,to study the possible future supply and demand contradiction,so as to put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.Firstly,we select three time frame,contrast the main energy's import amount and accounting for the proportion of total imports respectively in horizontally and vertically,accordingly this contrast we find that the import of energy products in the region has always been with traditional energy-based,but the amount and proportion of coal import showed a downward trend.Secondly,contrast the number of import origin and the number of imported energy for dynamic comparison,the results show that the number of import origin of the main energy of Yangtze River economic Belt is steadily increasing year by year,and energy import risk getting smaller and smaller.Then,by using the Grey Relation Theory,calculate the grey relational coefficient between the number of the main energy product import and their influencing factors,the results show that the degree of influence from large to small is economic development factor,investment in fixed assets factors,industrial structure factor,technological progress factor,urbanization factor,population factor and renewable energy factor.Then we make a prediction about the supply and demand of the main energy products in the Yangtze River economic Belt in the next 15 years by using GM(1,1)grey forecasting model.And calculates The amount of difference between the future energy supply and demand balance of this economic region,and the results show that the conflict between supply and demand of coal,oil and natural gas in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will be alleviated,but the power supply and demand will be intensified.Finally,we put forward some suggestions about how to coordinate the relationship between economic,energy and environment combined with the low-carbon economy and other relevant economic development policies.