The Welfare Effects Of Grain Price Volatility In Main Producing Areasx、Producing And Sales Balance Areas And Sales Areas

The grain industry is the basic industry of China’s national economy, grain securitydirectly affect the development of other industries. In recent years, the international grainsecurity situation is grim, the world is facing the most severe grain crisis in30years. China isa country with a large population, the issue of grain security has been unprecedented attention,there have been frequent and severe fluctuations due to China’s grain prices, grain supply anddemand has become increasingly prominent, leading to ever-increasing costs of living,thereby affecting the welfare of changing.In this study, using a qualitative analysis method, indicated in the China’s grainproduction status and the trend of the main producing areas, the balance between productionand sales areas and sales areas ‘s changes in grain production, areas,prices, from1978-2011.The results show that the main producing areas the acreage total grain upward trend, with anaverage annual rise of0.64%; little change in the proportion of the balance production andsales area, remaining at about21.79%. Overall sales areas show a downward trend, with anaverage annual decrease of0.21%. The main producing areas of grain production accountedfor the proportion of the national grain production showed an upward trend in the fluctuations,rose to77.39%in2011from69.31%in1978, an average annual increase of0.24%; littlechange in the proportion of the balance between production and sales area, remained at about17.12%. The overall downward trend in sales areas, with an average annual decrease of0.24%. China’s major grain-producing areas, the balance between production and sales areaand sales areas of grain production prices and grain retail price frequent and severefluctuations, the overall upward trend in the fluctuations in volatility trend is roughly the same,but on the whole regional grain retail price volatility is greater than the volatility of the priceof grain production.On the basis of the partition, the establishment of grain supply and demand model, withan estimated three regional grain supply price elasticity, the income elasticity of demand forgrain, and since the price elasticity of demand, the calculation results show that: the major grain-producing areas, the balance between production and sales area and kingpin area grainprice elasticity of supply coefficient:0.280,0.230,0.06, the main producing areas of the grainsupply price elasticity is greater than the balance production and sales area grain from theprice elasticity of supply is greater than the sales areas since the price of grain supplyelasticity. The income elasticity of demand for grain:-0.264,-0.077,-0.283, demand for grainand income was a negative correlation, mainly because of the continuous improvement ofliving standards, consumption has become more diversified, so the grain consumption of otherdiverse of consumer goods instead. Since the coefficient of price elasticity of grain demandwere:-0.169,-0.157,-0.104, ie, three regional grain retail price for each10%increase in graindemand in the main producing areas decreased by1.69%greater than the balance productionand sales area grain demand decreased by1.57%greater than the sales areas of grain demanddecreased by1.04%. Correct measurement of welfare should be used Hicks needs rather thanMarshall needs further estimates on the basis of the three regions Hicks elasticity of demandcoefficient.On the basis of the analysis on the the three producing grain supply and the elasticity ofdemand, drawing on the proposed changes in crop prices in the Minot and Goletti (2000)welfare effects model, measurement and decomposition of China’s grain price fluctuations inthe three regional welfare effects. The results show that: the main producing areas, the balancebetween production and sales areas and sales areas of grain production and price changes andshort-term and long-term production of changes in welfare has a positive effect relationshipbetween retail grain price changes and short-term and long-term consumer welfare change hasa negative effect relationship, but three production in large areas of welfare change in totalwelfare change in a dominant position. The trend of long-term benefits of changes in grainprices and changes in the short-term benefits and long-term welfare effects than the effects ofshort-term benefits, but the overall effect is not obvious.On the basis of the above analysis, the study pointed out that some of the problems thatexist in the process of China’s grain production, and depending on the grain production areaswere targeted suggestions; welfare effects caused by changes in grain prices of the differentregions changes of government should be based on the actual situation of grain productionand consumption, grain the protective prices or grain production implementation of pricesubsidies, try to keep the stability of grain prices, to protect the interests of grain producers toimprove the welfare of grain producers, grain supply security. Other policy measures andshould develop science to guide grain production and consumption, supply and demand balance in the promotion of China’s grain production and consumption activities, thuscontributing to the safety of our grain supply. But at the same time should be concerned aboutrising grain prices caused by welfare caused by the increase in the area of conflict of interestin the regulation of grain prices, the government should pay more attention to the interests ofthe main producing areas, pay attention to the protection of the actual interests of the mainproducing areas, coordination of regional conflicts of interest.