An Econometric Study For International Tourism Flows Based On The Case Of Lake Baikal 2008-2016

Lake Baikal is the largest freshwater lake by volume in the world,located in southern Siberia(Irkutsk Oblast)and was declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1996.The lake,nicknamed "the Pearl of Siberia",drew investors from the tourist industry as energy revenues sparked an economic boom.In 2007,the Russian government declared the Baikal region a special economic zone.The Agency for tourism of Irkutsk Oblast,which was established by The Government of Irkutsk Oblast in 2008,is responsible for state regulation of tourist activity and management in the field of organization and functioning of therapeutic areas and resorts of the regional and local significance,such as Lake Baikal destination to garner a significant market share of the growing tourism industry in the region.A number of factors such as mountains,beautiful landscape,pure eco-system,culture monuments are the main attractions for visitors to Lake BaikalThis thesis is a study of demand determinants of Lake Baikal tourism.The international tourist flow from 10 origin(major)countries is used in the study.Lake Baikal's tourism industry is assessed based on neoclassic demand theory of economics utilizing annual historical origin country per capita income,region's Consumer Price Index(CPI),time-tend data and also incorporated special events factors.The period examined is 2008-2016 and annual time-series data were obtained from official statistical publications.The power demand model is selected for the study.The multiplier regression analysis is carried out using generalized least square for panel data and the time-series procedure for each individual country,and using econometric package of Stata 13.0.In general,the results indicate a positive relationship between tourists arrivals and national income and exchange rate of tourist generating countries.The major purpose of this study is to increase the knowledge of policy makers within the Government of Irkutsk Oblast(The Agency for Tourism of Irkutsk Oblast)to develop informed demand management strategies to sustain this vital industry.