Analysis Of Influencing Factors And Emissio N Reduction Pote Ntial Of Urban Land Use Carbon Emissions In Zhejiang Province

With the continuous development of global industry,Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions have gradually had a serious impact on the survival and development of human society.In the process of accelerated urbanization and industrialization,urban land use has become one of the main man-made causes of greenhouse effect and excessive carbon emission.In this context,it has become an inevitable obligation and responsibility of the whole world to define the carbon emission level and studv the influencing factors of carbon emission.Carbon ermission research from the perspective of land use is conducive to the assessment of the environnmental impact caused by human activities from the basic level,and is the strategic basis for the realization of low-carbon development mode.There are many factors that affect the carbon emissioln of urban land use.In the past.most researchers focused on the effect of energy consumption,industrial development,urban morphology and other factors on the carbon emission process of land use,but paid little attention to the impact of Land use itself So it is necessary to shift our perspective to the lancd use.itself.Based on the statistical data of Zhejiang province and ll prefecture-level cities under its jurisdiction from 2003 to 2015,this paper calculates their carbon emissions.By using decoupling model and factor decomposition model(LMDI),this paper analyzes the factors which influence on urban land use carbon emissions.Further,the situation of low-carbon emission reduction in the research area under the guidance of different development goals is disscussed,so as to provide reference for the adjustment and optimization of urban land use structure and the realization of low-carbon development goals in different cities in the future.The calculation results of urban land use carbon emission in Zhejiang province and its prefecture-level cities show that,first the total carbon emission from urban land use in Zhejiang province was 85,168,800 tons in 2003,and 209,386,200 tons in 2015.Durirng the study period,the carbon emission first increased year by year and then decreased steadily.Second,carbon emission from industrial land is the main source of carbon emission fi-om urban land use in Zhejiang proince,followed by transportation land,residential land and other urban land.Various indicators of carbon emission intensity are declining year by year.Third,the carbon emissions from urban land use of different cities are generally consistent with the overall situation of the province.According to the carbon emissions of cities,they can be roughly divided into three categories:high-emission cities(Hangzhou and Ningbo),low-emission cities(Lishui and Zhoushan)and medium-emission cities(other cities).Fourth,there is a significant positive correlation between the economic growth of Zhejiang province and the carbon emission of urban land use,while there is an obvious inverted u-shaped Kuznets curve between the urban land area and the carbon emission of urban land useThe analysis results of urban land use c.arbon emission in zhejiang province and its prefecture-level cities show that,first from 2003 to 2015,urban land use carbon emission and economic growth in Zhejiang province experienced a transition from expansionary linkage to decoupling,and from ex pansionary negative decoupling to strong decoupling between carbon emission and urban land use.Second,urban land use carbon emissions of Zhejiang province increase in 2003-2015 is mainly caused by the population scale factor,followed by economic factor and the carbon intensity of land use efficiency,effect of land use structure is small,the energy scale factor and the land use efficiency factor of urban land use carbon emission performance is negative effect The influence.of various factors are basic increases with the passage of time and accumulate.Third,according to the main driving factors,cities in the province can be divided into land carbon emission intensity driving type(Zhoushan),economic efficiency driving type(Hangzhou,Huzhou)and population size driven(other cities).The simulation results of urban land use carbon emission reduction in Zhejiang province and its prefecture-level cities show that,first under the inertial scenario,the urban land use carbon emission status of Zhejiang province in 2030 is from the preset emission reduction target,and the emission reduction target cannot be achieved except for the economic carbon emission intensity.Second,under the mitigation scenario,most emission reduction targets can be achieved,and there is still a certain gap in land use carbon emission intensity Third,under the positive scenario,the emission reduction target will basically be achieved,and the per capita target and economic carbon emission intensity can be exceeded.Fourth,under the existing planning targets,all the emission reduction targets except the total carbon emission cannot be achieved,and the traffic land and other urban land have the greatest potential to reduce emissionIn the end,based on the influence factors analysis and simulation results,this paper make suggestions on future emissions reduction strategies in Zhejiang province Combined with the current situation of social and economic development of Zhejiang province,energy conservation and emissions reduction targets can be achieved according to measures on industry and economic development?urban land use,energy consumption and utilization and other social management measures.