An Model Of The Enterprise Crisis Early Warning Based On Signal Analysis

With the fast development of economic,the business environment of enterprise is increasingly complex and facing more and more uncertainties.Under such circumstances,the outbreak of crisis is more and more frequent and brings different degrees of damage and losses to enterprises,seriously hamper their sustainable development. In order to reduce or avoid the occurrence of crisis,how to carry on the early warning of the crisis has become a core problem in the field of enterprise management.At present,the relevant literature on the enterprise crisis early warning is mostly according to competitive intelligence or the historical data to warn the crises,but in the real business environment,the collection of competitive intelligence became very hard because of the appearance of anti competitive intelligence,and it has not great significance to describe the current situation of enterprise by quantitative model based on historical data.Therefore,these two ways have a lot of problems in dealing with the crisis.But anything that happened is not groundless,so is the enterprise crisis and then there will always be some sign signals.If the enterprise can recognize these signals early and predict the change by these signals brought, effective decisions could be made within a limited period of time,so as to avoid crises or reduce the damage from the crisis.Therefore,in this paper,the definition of enterprise crisis,crisis type and the evolution are introduced in detail.On this basis,the advantages that the signal apply to the crisis early warning are analyzed and puts forward a kind of process of crisis early warning based on signal theory.And then,with the thorough analysis to crisis cases,this paper has located 23 indications that can reflect enterprise crisis inducement factors to be grouped as an early warning indicator system for monitoring early warning signals and measuring enterprise crisis.Next,based on the comparison of signal collection methods, method for this study is pointed out and through the analysis of the early warning signal,the intelligence that enterprise needs is got.So the crisis scene that enterprise may face in the future can be built by using these collected intelligence, then the value of indicators can be determined in this crisis scene and the matter-element extension evaluation model based on TFAHP is built to measure the degree of enterprise crisis in this scene.Finally,the part is to test the feasibility and effectiveness of the model with the case of Samsung Electronics and proposes the treatment measures according to the crisis.