The Research Of China's Export Value Chain Upgrading:Under The Perspective Of The Evolution Of Labor Supply

The importance of exports for China's economic development is self-evident as one of the troika for it.Under the "new normal" of China's economy downward,it is obvious for low-end locking of manufacturing value chain,which makes exports suffer a serious challenge.How to conform the labor supply evolution and rise the export value chain,which is forced for China's sustainable economic development.With the decline of the demographic dividend and the bonus talent not yet formed,it is urgent for China's manufacturing industry to find a new impetus to support the value chain.Paper is divided into seven parts.Summarize the background and significance firstly.Then list literature systematically arranged by export value chain rising,the evolution of labor supply,and the relationship between them.Build up the theoretical models focused on the function between labor evolution and value chain upgrading.And simulate it.On this basis,by designing measure index,initially inspect the function in generalized additive models(GAM)semi-parametric test.Further quantitative analyze the influence of labor supply evolution to value chain upgrading,do robust test for the regression results at this time.Finally,put forward some advices and inspiration.The main conclusions of the study are as follows: Labor supply is the important power for manufacturing development,which has three aspects of role for value chain rising at least.Firstly,the effect of demographic dividend is to achieve economies of scale,strengthen comparative advantages of neighbor processes,realize optimal production,and advance value chain upgrading,while the prerequisite is the existing labor surplus after optimal production.With the value chain rising,the effect of labor amount continue to decay.Second,talent bonus is the substitution and supplement for the function of labor amount.With the value chain rising,the effect of talent bonus continue promoting,and the restricting of labor skills become more prominent.Thirdly,the bonus of labor allocation will be new force for export value chain climbing up.It acts directly by determining the actual labor input for amount and quality.Especially,it is optimizing the allocation of high-skilled labor that will accelerated promote export value chain upgrading.No doubt,labor allocation will be another important focus to break the bottleneck of export value chain rising for China's low efficiency of labor input in manufacturing production.