The Change Of Supply And Demand Of Labor Force In China

The main goal of the dissertation is to study the change of labor supply and demand (LSD) in China. China's LSD keeps in an unbalanced situation all the time. This imbalance leads to being confronted with the enormous "farmers frenzied hunting for work in cities" in last century, and the labor shortage phenomenon in many areas and industries in recent years. Therefore, it is practically important to analyze the trends and causes of the LSD change in China. And the effective policies and measures are significant to improve the utilization ratio to human resources.The causes of the change of LSD in China since 1978 are studied from the total quantity and structure. Economic effects of population change are also analyzed through the factor that affects LSD. And the LSD change connected with population change is discussed as well. Through the empirical analysis method, the practical trend and cause of labor participation rate, the work time and employment are studied from both the labor supply and the labor demand. The corresponding policy suggestions are provided in the last chapter of the dissertation. And the main conclusions and policy meanings are presented meanwhile.Stage change happened since the reform and opening. However, the structure contradiction of LSD is enlarged at mean time. Through the analysis of relevant data the dissertation comes to conclusion as follow: the labor forces in the primary industry and the secondary industry have already shifted towards the tertiary industry, and the trend still continues; the labor forces are shifting towards construction, transportation, communication, retail trading and restaurant industry.; now the labor force is concentrated to the eastern regions, especially to the southeast headquarter areas where is apt to be the main destination of the labor force.The labor force population alteration brought by population change is mainly discussed following the analysis of essential elements that affect the labor force. On one hand, the changes of labor force population and population itself are increasing the contradiction of LSD; on the other hand, they also provide an important basis on which China can make use of population bonus to drive economic growth. However, with the accelerated trend of population aging, the rate of labor force population to total population is decreasing. So the population bonus will be definitely disappeared.Therefore, on one hand, it is necessary to adopt measures to ensure population bonus in China, on the other hand, new development strategy must be worked out to cultivate new competitive advantages before the population bonus disappears.When the labor supply change is studied, the labor force participation rate (LFPR) and the labor force supply time are taken into account in the dissertation. From 1978, the labor force participation rate in China is high, but the LFPR is decreasing nowadays. The empirical analysis on this trend reveals that the wage, macroeconomic situation, unemployment, education and living status are the important factors to affect the labor force participation rate.Recently, labor force supply time in China has been increasing. Through the analysis, it could be found that the backward trend has not appeared in the labor force supply curve, which means that labor income is still at a relatively low level. With the change of wage, the perfecting of employment institution, the influence of physiology and society, labor force supply time will be definitely decreasing in future.Employment fluctuation in China also changes all the time though the general trend is that the employment number rises slowly. This change is raised by the inherent cause that affects employment change including the change of wage, economic development, technology innovation and structure adjustment. It is also closely connected with employment cost. So from the long-run viewpoint, the corresponding policies and measures for fully utilizing human resources and population bonus must be worked out before the population bonus disappears. Three innovations are formed in this dissertation. Firstly, the changes of LSD are analyzed in both total quantity and structural way. So forth from available reference, when the LSD were analyzed, the contradiction of total quantity was always confused with contradiction of structure which raising the dispute that if China's labor has been in the "Lewis inflexion ". So it is very significant to study the total quantity and structure of LSD respectively. It is very important to grasp the LSD change in the future. And it is essential to aim at the contradiction of LSD, especially the relevant policy for the structural contradiction. Secondly, main attention is paid to the analysis of the LSD change resulted from the change of population structure. In the past, when the labor force was studied, the supply and demand was always analyzed in a static state. Obviously there are many limitations in such kind of study on LSD change. The influence of population change on LSD and economical development could only be deeply investigated when the LSD research focus on population structure change rather than the population growth and population scale. Thirdly, in this dissertation, the LSD is analyzed on three aspects of the labor force participation rate, the supply time of labor force and employment.