Study On The Application Of Energy Dividend Theory And Calculation Method

Energy is the important material base of national economy, high level of material civilization depends on the development of energy economy, and push forward of spiritual civilization and material civilization and the modern business world a high level of material civilization and spiritual civilization are built on the basis of the economic development of the energy.Research results about the relationship between energy and economic development, and mostly focused on the relationship between energy and economic.But on energy development brings the realistic or potential dividends, few scholars have put forward concrete theory of measure method and applied to the empirical analysis, which to a certain extent affect the vertical and horizontal extension of energy economics research.Therefore, define concepts such as "energy bonus" in theory, discuss the measure is to be solved in energy economics theory and realistic problem.Definition of this article is from energy bonuses, create energy bonus calculation method and model, the research on the economic contribution of energy output, will build the method applied to the energy bonus calculation and forecast in guizhou, empirically construct method is scientific, and some useful conclusions.First of all, in this paper, starting from the economic essence of deconstruction dividends and demographic dividend, think the bonus is in surplus profit gained by the different elements.The use of energy and get extra dividends defined for energy inputs to economic growth.Specifically, energy bonus is to point to a country or a region with the aid of its own energy endowment advantage, after the input energy elements of additional economic growth.Thus making energy bonus from experience of a fuzzy judgment into the concept of a clear, specific expression, is to study the effect of energy for economic development provides a clear and specific measure, energy definition of dividend is not only to understanding and grasp the change trend of energy and economy have important theoretical value, but also for other derived dividend concept provides an important reference.Second, reference to related research of methods of demographic dividend, from the perspective of regional energy output contribution to economic growth, to build the regional energy bonus calculation model.In building the model, the introduction of the variable parameter state space model, in order to better highlight the time-varying characteristics of energy bonus.Taking guizhou province as the object of empirical test, using the related parameters of 1978-2013 time series data, calculates energy bonus in guizhou.Results show that: first, there is a huge energy in guizhou bonuses, energy industry has huge potential, has huge growth of the national economy;Second, building energy dividend model can well reflect the energy contribution to the economic growth, is a scientific measure.Finally, on the basis of energy bonus calculation model, using the scenario analysis method, through the scene building, quantitative scenarios and results analysis, to the national GDP, the total energy consumption and energy output of guizhou three variables, set different growth forecast for 2014-2020 under different scenarios of guizhou energy bonus.The results show that the guizhou quite a long period of time in the future will produce a great energy bonus, and the trend of increased year by year.