Research On Demand Forecasting Of Fresh Agricultural Products Cold Chain Logistics

With the improvement of the quality of life,the people's demand for material life is gradually from a single type about only food and clothing to the searching for the diversification of nutrition.At the same time,the consumption demand of fresh agricultural products is also growing.The cold chain logistics provide protection for fresh agricultural product's quality and safety.However,at this stage,China's level of cold logistics is relatively low,resulting in a large part of the fresh agricultural products become perishable during the transportation.In order to meet the demand of cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products,a reasonable demand forecasting of cold chain about fresh agricultural food is essential.The demand of forecasting of fresh agricultural products cold chain logistics can provide data support for scientific and rational decision making of relevant department,which will help to achieving a reasonable layout and planning of facilities and equipment,and to achieving the balance of the market supply and demand.It can also promote the fresh agricultural products cold chain logistics industry realizing the healthy development.In this paper,taking fresh agricultural products cold chain as the research object,from the aspects of regional development,the level of industrial structure,the factor of logistics industry,supply and demand of market and so on point of view,and think over the influencing factors carefully.Using the Delphi method to extract effective index,and establish a demand index system of fresh agricultural product cold chain logistics.Then,from the perspective of nonlinear intelligent prediction,linear regression and time series prediction point of view,selecting PSO-BP neural network prediction model,multiple linear regression prediction model,ARIMA model to forecast the object.Finally three kinds of single foresting data are entered into the SVR model,and the actual demand of object is expected to be the output.And then,the nonlinear combination forecasting model based on SVR is constructed.Taking Tianjin city as an example of the empirical research,throughing the accuracy evaluation,the accuracy and the validity of the nonlinear combination forecasting model based on SVR is proved.And take demand forecasting of the fresh agricultural products cold chain in Tianjin the next seven years,and then,get the forecast data about the de mand of fresh agricultural product cold chain logistics in Tianjin the next seven.This can provide some reference suggestions for the investment planning of the fresh agricultural cold chain logistics about Tianjin.