Research On Demand Forecast Of Agricultural Products Cold Chain Logistics In Beijing

In recent years, with economic rapidly growing and people’s income and consumption levels increase, Beijing’s GDP continue to increase from 2.2023 trillion year in 2009 to 3.6057 trillion Yuan in 2014, rising by nearly 63.7%.Good development momentum of Beijing economic and improvement of Beijing residents consumption level make the demand for such fresh produce logistics in Beijing continue to show an upward trend and the total amount of Beijing agricultural products cold chain logistics also will be increased from 23.71 billion Yuan in 2009 to 31.68 billion Yuan in 2013. Despite cold chain logistics rate of fresh agricultural products in Beijing increase year by year, up from 4.1% in 2009 to 6.6% in 2011, there is still an imbalance between supply and demand fresh produce market to a certain extent. Beijing’s agricultural products cold chain logistics starts relatively late, and its scale and system is not perfect, decision-making lack support necessary to research the quantitative data. In order to ensure the rapid and coordinated development of Beijing’s fresh agricultural products logistics industry, rational and efficient configuration of logistics resources and coordination and balance supply and demand of fresh produce, we need to research agricultural products cold chain logistics demand prediction of Beijing.Starting from Beijing agricultural products cold chain logistics, this paper forecasts Beijing’s agricultural products cold chain logistics total demand, analyzes and discusses the, development trend of the future for a period of time with quantitative method so as to promote the industry has a flourished and healthy development. Because single forecasting model has lower forecast accuracy and fresh agriculture products have complex influence factors and is difficult to quantify, this paper by means of a combination model which based on gray forecasting model and multiple linear regression to forecast Beijing’s fresh agriculture products logistics demand. Finally, this paper proposes some scientific and effective advice and measures to promote the healthy and harmonious development of Beijing’s fresh agriculture products logistics industry based on the forecast results.