Research On The Forecast Of Cold Chain Logistics Demand For Aquatic Products In Qingdao

In recent years,with the continuous improvement of living standards,consumers pay more and more attention to dietary structure and food safety.Aquatic products are favored by consumers because of their delicious taste,low fat and high nutrition.The consumption of aquatic products accounts for an increasing proportion of food consumption.Therefore,the demand for cold chain logistics of aquatic products is increasing year by year.At present,we are in the "Internet +" environment.The rapid rise and development of the major fresh electricity providers make the cold chain distribution path longer and more complex,enhancing the interaction between cold chain enterprises and consumers,and promoting the development of cold chain logistics.This paper chooses Qingdao,a famous aquatic product producing city,to do the research on cold chain logistics of aquatic products.The demand and development trend of cold chain logistics of aquatic products in Qingdao under the development of fresh e-commerce are forecasted and analyzed quantitatively by using grey prediction model.It can provide scientific reference for Qingdao cold chain logistics enterprises,further improve Qingdao's competitiveness and promote the development of economy.Based on a large number of reading and comprehensive analysis of the research status and related theories of cold chain logistics and fresh e-commerce at home and abroad,this paper focuses on Qingdao aquatic products cold chain logistics enterprises,and uses PEST model to analyze the macro-environment of enterprise development in four aspects: policy,economic situation,social environment and technological facilities.Ten indicators suitable for this model are identified and classified into six categories: population size index,Internet development index,product supply and demand index,cold chain efficiency index,logistics scale index and economic and environmental index.Based on these indicators,the cold chain logistics demand forecasting index system of Qingdao aquatic products is established.Through consulting Qingdao Statistical Bulletin.Shandong Statistical Yearbook and many other statistical data were collected and collated from 2011 to 2018.The GM(1,1)model is used to forecast the future cold chain logistics demand of aquatic products.At the same time,this paper uses the grey correlation analysis method to calculate and rank the impact degree of each index on the cold chain logistics demand,and explores the impact of each factor on the cold chain logistics demand now and in the future and their respective development trends.Combining with the forecasting results,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the development of cold chain logistics of aquatic products in Qingdao,such as increasing investment in production base and fixed assets,increasing output and improving logistics circulation rate,building an integrated service support system to accelerate the development of fresh e-commerce,increasing information support and training cold chain logistics talents.