Evaluation Of Trade Value-Added Effect Of Trade Liberalization Between China And Korea

Trade accounts based on the global value chain have developed rapidly in recent years and have changed the understanding of trade interests.At the same time,since the financial crisis,the free trade area agreement quickly occurred,the Sino-Korean free trade area related to the amount of 200 billion US dollars of trade,is an highlight.Based on this,this paper mainly tried to answer two questions:(1)What is the difference between trade creation and trade transfer effect in the trade value-added perspective,and which is different from the traditional trade fairs and trade transfer effects?(2)The China and South Korea Free Trade Area would bring the number of traditional trade effects.From the perspective of trade value added,how much changewill the effect has?FTA construction is bound to bring about changes in trade flows between the two countries,which specifically affect the trade structure of the intermediate products and the trade structure of the final products,thus causing changes in the value-added effect of trade between the two countries.Based on the analysis of "shock variable-intermediate variable-target variable",this paper first constructs a two-stage trade effect model of tariff reduction under Ammington 's assumption,and analyzes how tariff changes cause intermediate and final trade The change.Then,based on the export value decomposition model of Wang et al.(2013),the trade flow is decomposed at the national sector level to construct the value-added effect of trade creation and the value-added effect of trade transfer.The former is the FTA due to the other members of the alliance of imported products lower than the domestic products caused by the direct increase in the value of the Allies.The latter is due to the trade between the allies instead of the original alliance and non-alliance between the trade,caused by the Allies and non-alliance of the direct changes in added value.In the empirical part,the paper is divided into two parts.First,the analysis of the trade characteristics of China and South Korea:(1)the rapid development of bilateral trade between China and South Korea,for South Korea,the importance of trade relations with China is rising;(2)China and South Korea trade complementarity is high In the long term,China and South Korea's industrial structure gradually converged;(3)China and South Korea's exports in the country's lower value-added,and trade between China and South Korea is a large part of the import of intermediate products for production and to meet exports.In the second part of the empirical study,this paper estimates the impact of the Sino-Korea free trade zone on the trade of intermediate products and the trade of the final products,that is,the virtual world input-output table from the perspective of local equilibrium.On this basis,to further estimate the value-added effect of trade creation created by China-South Korea FTA and the value-added effect of trade transfer.The study shows that:(1)South Korea has received about $ 22.973 billion in trade value since the signing of the Korea-China Free Trade Area from the perspective of trade value added.China only received 720 million.(2)From the industrial level,China's agricultural products,textile and leather products industry and other industries in Korea,machinery manufacturing and other industries will benefit,while China's machinery manufacturing industry and South Korea's agriculture Will be subject to some negative impact.(3)According to the type of industry,China's agriculture,capital-intensive manufacturing and labor-intensive manufacturing industry will benefit greatly,knowledge-intensive manufacturing damage more;South Korea's knowledge-intensive manufacturing industry to benefit the most,Other manufacturing industries benefit from varying degrees,while agriculture is under greater impact.Finally,according to the above results,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.