Research On The Policy Factors Affecting Wheat Price Fluctuation In China

Food is not only a necessity for people's lives but also a strategic material for the country.The issue of "agriculture,rural areas and farmers" has always been the number one concern of the government working papers.With the progress of urbanization in rural areas,the cultivated area of grain and the labor force engaged in the primary industry have been declining.From the perspective of the international market,the international grain supply and demand are more tense.Our country can basically meet the demand of self-sufficiency.How to adapt to the changes in the domestic and international economic forms and improve the grain policy in our country is crucial for stabilizing the grain supply and demand.In 2016,China introduced various industries to carry out supply-side structural reforms.Therefore,at present,the main task of the "three rural" work is to promote supply-side structural reforms in agriculture.As one of the most widely planted grain crops in our country,wheat is a necessity for the people's livelihood.Stabilizing the market price of wheat is extremely important for regulating supply and demand.At the same time,it provides a theoretical basis for the "supply-side" structural reform.In our country,the policy is an indispensable means to regulate the grain market.However,many scholars have also raised objections to some policies that they distort the market price.Therefore,this article discusses the influence of policy factors on the market price of wheat and puts forward Related suggestions.This article starts with the reform of grain price policy,analyzes the fluctuation law of wheat market price,and uses HP filter analysis method to precisely analyze the trend feature and period feature.The results showed that from 1985 to 2016,the price fluctuation of wheat was obvious.It experienced three stages of "turmoil adjustment-trough-steady increase" successively.The overall trend has been on the rise for a long period of time.From the perspective of the period component,the price of wheat showed a trend of cyclical fluctuations Smooth state.Through the trend of price fluctuation of wheat and the result of filter analysis,it confirms that the minimum purchase price has a stable market price.In view of the current grain policy,such as the lowest purchase price policy,the direct subsidy policy on grain,the state's fiscal expenditure on agriculture and the import and export trade policy,it qualitatively analyzes the transmission path of their impact on the market price.The minimum purchase price can directly affect the price.Direct subsidies have a significant impact on the output of wheat in agriculture.The import tariff quota policy and export zero tariff policy directly regulate the import and export volume.These policies affect the market by influencing the supply and demand of domestic wheat price.In this paper,a simultaneous equation model is established to empirically analyze the impact of policy factors on wheat prices,and to establish the production function,consumption function,import and export functions and the identity equation of market clearing by combining the policy factors with the supply and demand factors.Least square method to estimate the parameters,the minimum purchase price policy and direct subsidy policy are obtained,the financial expenditure on agriculture has a significant impact on wheat production,export zero tariff policy has a significant impact on the wheat export volume,while the import tariff quota system on the import volume The effect is not obvious.On the basis of the simultaneous equations system,scenario simulation is used to analyze the effect of policy on market price,and the policy of minimum purchase price is obtained.Direct subsidy policy has played an active role in stabilizing market prices.With the increase of agricultural fiscal expenditure,To a certain extent,raise the prices in the domestic market;the implementation of the export-free tariff policy will be crucial to reducing the impact of the international market prices and stabilizing the domestic market prices.Finally,in order to make the implementation of policies not only safeguard the peasants' interests,but also guarantee the market price to work well,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations:insisting on the implementation of the minimum purchase price at this stage is undoubted and it still needs to maintain a steady increase.Large monitoring and control of purchase and sale of food;focus on financial expenditure put in place to control the intensity of investment;Direct subsidy policy should be coordinated with the minimum purchase price policy to strengthen the implementation of the import and export tariff policy,to play a timely effect,reduce the international market Abnormal price fluctuations on the domestic market price.