Risk Assessment And Application Research Of PPP Projects In China

In recent years,the infrastructure construction as the first capital of economic development has made rapid progress in our country,it not only can promote economic development,to improve people's living standards also play a crucial role.But overall,China's infrastructure construction is far below the demand level regardless of quality or quantity.In the existing problems of urban infrastructure construction,financing is the key.In view of the marketization process in our country has not yet completed,infrastructure construction capital source mainly depends on the bank and other financial institutions,capital source channel single increased the risk of project construction,therefore,in the field of the introduction of private capital,give full play to the role of the private investors in the field,has become the consensus of theoretical and practical circles.In terms of past experience,most of the infrastructure construction in our country is in the charge of government departments,but due to the infrastructure construction belongs to the capital-intensive projects,investment scale is larger,even if the government took on more debt is also unable to meet the shortfall of existing infrastructure construction;At the same time,government departments for private investors lack of advanced construction technology and rich management experience,make the whole project in the process of construction operation of common problems of high cost and low efficiency.In order to solve the above problems,the state began to vigorously develop the PPP mode,this mode to the government policy support ability and the private sector sufficient funds,advanced construction technology and rich management experience,to fill the funding gap and improve the operational efficiency of the project.But because of the PPP projects are compared to the general project funds,the scale of the implementation cycle is long,and many participants,etc,to make it faces more risk than the general project,so how to effectively carry on the risk analysis,is a realistic problem remaining to be solved.However,for the PPP project itself in space and time extension,its internal factors as well as with the complex interaction between the external environment,making it greater risk than the normal project.Therefore,how effectively analyze its risk is a real problem to be solved.The paper is based on previous researches,studied the PPP risk according to the project life-cycle perspective,using the model of factor analysis and analytic hierarchy process to evaluate the PPP project risk,in order to facilitate the project risk management and help the PPP project implement successfully.First,this paper generally explains the research background and research significance,the PPP risk research status at home and abroad on the basis of summarized the PPP and define the concept of the risk.At the same time,under the condition of the comprehensive consideration of various factors,the PPP project risk is divided into internal and external risks,and will be subdivided,the two types of risk,for the PPP project risk identification methods are compared,and ultimately selected factor analysis and AHP as the research methods of this article,it laid a theoretical foundation for the next part of the empirical analysis.Secondly,factor analysis and hierarchical analysis model construction.First of all,this article on the basis of expert scoring method to obtain the data,the empirical research of recycling the data reliability and validity analysis,to determine the applicability of the data for factor analysis and AHP,after the factor analysis model and the hierarchical analysis model of frame are expounded respectively,the construction of the part model embodies the subjectivity and objectivity and the combination of the combination of qualitative and quantitative characteristics.Again,on the basis of the above,this part based on the method of factor analysis,first has carried on the quantitative analysis of the PPP project key risk factors,and found that in terms of overall PPP projects in China,policy and law the weight of risk factors account for the highest,the influence of the PPP project is most important,but with ever increasing in recent years our country government credibility in its probability is small,this part aims to verify the applicability of the model for overall risk.Then,this paper applies factor analysis and AHP to specific cases to further verify the feasibility and applicability of this model in PPP project risk assessment.At the end of this paper,the limitations of factor analysis and analytic hierarchy process are pointed out.In order to make the PPP model in our country will be able to get better application and as far as possible the risk prevention rather than cure,this paper respectively for the internal risk and external risk puts forward several policy Suggestions:by building in accordance with the situation of our country ""laws and regulations,policy guidance and detailed rules for the implementation of the system framework,as well as the risk transfer manner of external risk prevention;The internal risks should be prevented by constructing the risk-sharing principle which accords with the ability of participants.